Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, Eurasia Chairman of IAOM, emphasized that a challenging period awaits the feed sector due to logistical tensions in the Black Sea and the heatwave striking Europe. Highlighting a 9 million-ton crop loss in the EU and a surging corn deficit reaching 23 million tons, Ulusoy drew attention to impending global price volatility.

Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, Eurasia Chairman of the International Association of Operative Millers (IAOM), evaluated critical topics ranging from global food security and escalating freight tensions in the Black Sea to the impact of extreme heat on corn production and agricultural inputs. Reminding that the Black Sea serves as the "grain heartland" accounting for 32% of global wheat exports, Ulusoy stated that port traffic bottlenecks in recent weeks have put global markets back under stress. Pointing out that geopolitical risks are not limited to the Black Sea alone, Ulusoy noted that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are bottlenecking global fertilizer supply, thereby threatening crop yields in the coming period.

"LOGISTICAL TENSIONS IN THE BLACK SEA HIGHER THAN THE INITIAL DAYS OF WAR"

Stating that prices climbed by more than 20% as conflicts between Russia and Ukraine shifted toward ports and commercial vessels in the Black Sea, the IAOM Eurasia Chairman detailed the volatility in commodity exchanges:

"We saw prices breach the 700 cents/bushel threshold at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), while exceeding 240 Euros on Europe’s MATIF. This surge stems from logistical bottlenecks and the prospect of tightening global market supply. Frankly, as industry stakeholders, we had not witnessed such high tension across the logistics chain even in the first days of the war. The fact that we are currently in the Northern Hemisphere harvest season is temporarily capping this upward momentum to some extent."

HEAT STRESS HITS EU CORN: 23 MILLION-TON IMPORT REQUIREMENT

Evaluating the latest data released by COCERAL (European Association of Cereals, Oilseeds and Feed Trade) during his live appearance on Bloomberg HT on the evening of July 28, Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy noted that extreme heat across Europe delivered its hardest blow to corn, a primary input for the feed industry:

"Due to the El Niño effect and the heatwave sweeping across Europe, there is a overall grain loss of 9 million tons. This drop was predominantly driven by corn. The heatwaves coincided precisely with the pollination stage of the corn crop, putting it under severe stress and revising yield estimates downward by 6-7%. The EU currently stands at a production of 52 million tons against a consumption of 75 million tons. This means Europe will have to import 1 out of every 3 tons of corn it consumes, facing a massive deficit of 23 million tons. The global feed market will be directly impacted by this imbalance."

TMO TAKES CENTER STAGE IN THE TURKISH MARKET

Emphasizing that Türkiye is going through a historical production season in stark contrast to global fluctuations, Ulusoy recalled that wheat production surpassed 23 million tons and barley reached over 9 million tons. Stating that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) plays the central regulatory role in the domestic market, Ulusoy put forward a strategic proposal for exporting processors:

"Türkiye normally imports wheat under the Inward Processing Regime (IPR) (Inward Processing Regime / Dahilde İşleme Rejimi) to process and export. However, this season our own lands are yielding an abundance. If TMO offers its vast reserves to exporters under an 'export-registered' scheme, our millers and processors can process domestic supply and export worldwide without needing imported raw materials. This would both alleviate TMO's stock load and provide a major opportunity for our industrial players." (Only hours after Ulusoy’s live broadcast call, TMO stepped in. Effective July 29, 2026, exports of bread wheat and broken wheat (restricted since March 2025) were reopened after 16 months through a controlled mechanism managed via the Central Anatolian Exporters' Association - OAİB).

"2027" WARNING ON HORMUZ STRAIT AND FERTILIZER CRISIS

Indicating that global risks extend beyond the Black Sea and that traffic bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting fertilizer supplies, Ulusoy expressed that while the current season can be navigated thanks to carry-over stocks, risks are escalating for the medium term.

Emphasizing that while the Hormuz crisis does not directly hit wheat supply, it severely impairs the global fertilizer flow, Ulusoy concluded: "Failure to apply adequate fertilizer to the soil directly threatens the yield of the upcoming season. Globally, there is a 22 million-ton gap between production and consumption. Thanks to stocks carried over from last year, there is no immediate panic, but all these accumulating climatic and logistical vulnerabilities pose serious risks, particularly for the 2027 season."