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A rapid and severe disruption in maritime flows through the Strait of Hormuz is emerging as a major shock to global agrifood systems, with tanker traffic reportedly dropping by more than 90 percent.

The all-out war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a logistical chokepoint, shaking global agricultural and energy markets. This nuclear-risk escalation in the Middle East has the potential to bring the entire production chain from fertilizer costs to feed raw materials to a standstill.

In an assessment for Miller Magazine, IGC Executive Director Arnaud Petit clarifies that while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns over energy, freight and fertilizer markets, the disruption does not mirror the systemic grain supply shock seen in the Black Sea.

Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly repricing risk across shipping, insurance and energy, pushing up landed grain costs, tightening fertilizer availability and raising food-security concerns in import-dependent markets.