The all-out war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a logistical chokepoint, shaking global agricultural and energy markets. This nuclear-risk escalation in the Middle East has the potential to bring the entire production chain from fertilizer costs to feed raw materials to a standstill.
The high-intensity war initiated by the United States under Donald Trump and its closest ally Israel has already triggered one of the most critical energy and logistics disruptions in modern history, alongside the humanitarian crisis it has caused. The military blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategic chokepoints, has effectively held not only oil tankers but also natural gas and urea trade, cornerstones of the agriculture-feed-livestock nexus, hostage. As Gulf Arab energy exporters scale down shipments due to rising security risks, the response of China, Iran’s largest oil buyer, keeps global balances on a knife’s edge.
For the feed sector, the real nightmare began with the disruption of natural gas flows, the key input for nitrogen-based fertilizer production. The speculative surge in gas prices has directly pushed up fertilizer and electricity costs, triggering an “agriflationary” process in core feed components such as corn and soybeans. Türkiye, facing the risk of being drawn closer to the conflict as a NATO member, is among the countries feeling this cost pressure most acutely. The European Union’s leading powers, France and Germany, along with strategic ally the United Kingdom outside the Union, are for now keeping a cautious distance from Trump’s persistent proposal to involve them in a war aimed at opening the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, despite this diplomatic standoff, the blockage of logistics routes is worsening the raw material crisis in livestock production facilities across Europe.
A NUCLEAR DOOMSDAY SCENARIO?
Future projections suggest that if the conflict escalates into a nuclear dimension effectively turning into a “doomsday scenario”, the consequences would extend far beyond a regional war, potentially leading to a complete collapse of global food supply. As the strategic importance of energy corridor countries such as Azerbaijan intensifies, high-cost stock management is no longer a choice but a matter of survival for feed producers. In this period where energy and food security are increasingly intertwined, every explosion in Hormuz continues to echo as rising costs on farms across the globe.
ALTERNATIVE RAW MATERIAL ROUTES AND RISK MANAGEMENT
The escalating US–Israel–Iran war is placing Türkiye’s feed producers under severe pressure from both exchange rate volatility and rising energy costs, while also causing major disruptions in Türkiye’s critical logistics arteries. Although a regulation published in the Official Gazette on March 5, 2026 aims to limit domestic fuel price increases, a joint statement by UND and UTİKAD highlights that fuel prices at border crossings have surged by 36%–50% since the outbreak of the war, creating “serious cost pressure” on international transport operations. The inability of existing freight contracts to absorb this sudden shock threatens the sustainability of raw material supply chains, making it a critical survival strategy for industry stakeholders to urgently shift toward alternative routes such as the Black Sea and the Middle Corridor, while closely following potential regulatory measures to safeguard export transportation.