The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could evolve into a systemic agrifood crisis within 6 to 12 months, according to the FAO. The organization warned that rising energy and fertilizer costs, disrupted logistics and climate risks may push global food prices significantly higher unless urgent action is taken. FAO officials called for coordinated intervention by governments, financial institutions and the private sector to strengthen supply chain resilience and protect vulnerable countries.

Maximo Torero
FAO podcast, Chief Economist

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz are no longer just a shipping issue, but a growing threat to global food security and price stability. In a newly released FAO podcast, Chief Economist Maximo Torero said the world must urgently increase countries’ “absorption capacity” and resilience to minimize the potential impacts of the disruption.

According to the FAO, decisions being made now regarding fertilizer application, financing, imports and crop planning could determine whether a severe global food price crisis emerges within the next 6 to 12 months. The organization noted that the effects are already becoming visible, with the FAO Food Price Index rising for a third consecutive month in April amid elevated energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.

David Laborde
FAO

FAO described the crisis as “a cascading shock” beginning with energy markets and fertilizer supply, followed by seed shortages, lower agricultural yields, commodity price increases and eventually food inflation. David Laborde said mitigating the impact would require shifting trade flows to alternative land and sea corridors through the eastern Arabian Peninsula, western Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea. However, he cautioned that these routes have limited capacity, making it critical to avoid export restrictions, particularly on energy and agricultural inputs.

The FAO also stressed the importance of safeguarding humanitarian food shipments and warned that a possible strong El Niño event could further intensify drought risks and disrupt rainfall patterns across key agricultural regions.

The organization’s recommendations include securing alternative trade corridors, avoiding export restrictions, expanding emergency financing for farmers and food imports, strengthening regional storage capacity, accelerating precision agriculture technologies and increasing investment in resilient logistics and energy systems.