Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest could decline significantly due to adverse weather and ongoing conflict.

Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest is projected to fall by 10% to approximately 51 million metric tons, down from 56.7 million tons in 2024, according to Agriculture Minister Vitaliy Koval. This decline, driven by poor weather and war-related disruptions, poses challenges for producers reliant on Ukrainian crops. “A difficult season awaits us. An abnormally warm winter, first there was no humidity, then prolonged rains delayed the sowing campaign in some regions for two weeks,” Koval told Reuters on June 3.

The forecast indicates specific reductions: corn at 26 million tons, barley at 4.5 million tons, and minor grains at 1.5 million tons. Oilseed production, including 11.5 million tons of sunflower seeds, may drop by 5%, while sugar beet output is expected at 11 million tons. Military risks, including mined fields and seized territories, further complicate planting and harvesting efforts.