Warmer temperatures have increased year-to-year maize yield variance by nearly 50% across Europe, Latin America, and North America since 2000, amplifying risks to global feed supply chains. Drought risk fuels instability in Eastern Europe, India, and Southern Africa.

According to an Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) assessment, maize yield volatility surged roughly 50% between 2000 and 2020 in key production zones across Europe, Latin America, and North America due to hotter growing seasons, directly threatening predictable feed grain supplies. This spike stems from warmer temperatures exacerbating droughts, making low-yield years more extreme. While Asia saw slower variance growth, Eastern Europe, India, and Southern Africa—already experiencing yield coefficients of variation over 20%—are now most vulnerable to destabilizing climate trends.

Change in yield standard deviation due to climate change  

Critically, the U.S. and China—contributing over 50% of global maize—maintained relative stability with just 10% yield variance historically. However, both face continued warming, and any volatility increase here would disproportionately disrupt worldwide markets. "The emergence of more variable maize yields over the last 25 years is likely a harbinger of higher maize yield variance in the coming decades," notes an AMIS assessment, urging investment in adaptive technologies.

Representing 20% of production, Argentina, Brazil, and Europe endured the strongest warming and drying trends, reducing average yields by 1% in Europe alone. Unlike historical patterns, climate impacts since 2000 have rapidly amplified volatility globally. Monitoring these hotspots and dominant producers is now essential for mitigating feed supply shocks as hotter droughts intensify.