Nanditha Kinavoor Madathil
Price Reporter
S&P Global Energy

While total EU feed production remains broadly stable, demand patterns are increasingly diverging across species and regions. ASF-related herd losses are pressuring pig feed demand, while poultry and cattle feed remain more resilient, prompting feed producers to adjust formulations and procurement strategies.

Europe’s feed industry is moving through the remainder of 2026 in a period of adjustment, shaped by ongoing African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks, changing grain economics, and a more segmented pattern of demand across species and regions. While total compound feed production is expected to remain broadly stable, feed mills say demand patterns are becoming increasingly differentiated by region and species, prompting producers to adapt both formulations and procurement strategies.

According to the latest industry outlook, EU compound feed production is expected to remain close to 152 million metric tons in 2026, broadly in line with the previous year. However, that stability masks growing divergence within the market. Pig feed demand is facing renewed pressure from herd losses in ASF-affected areas, while poultry and cattle feed are expected to remain steadier, helping to offset some of the weakness in the swine segment.

ASF CONTINUES TO WEIGH ON PIG FEED DEMAND

Animal disease remains the main downside risk for the European feed sector, particularly for pig feed demand. In Spain, recent ASF outbreaks in wild boar populations have added fresh uncertainty to the market, with feed market participants estimating herd reductions of 10%-20% in affected regions.

Spain remains a key market to watch given its position as the EU’s largest pork exporter and one of the bloc’s most important feed-producing countries. “Any prolonged disease-related disruption there has implications not only for domestic feed demand, but also for wider market sentiment across Europe,” a Spain-based trader said.

A Spanish pork industry expert said, “The risk would become more serious if ASF affects domestic pig farms through wild boar populations, as that could result in significant losses for the pork industry”.

“Also, the recent avian flu detected in Poland and France, even though no immediate effects are seen, will have some gradual effects in the feed market,” a German animal feed industry expert said.

For feed producers, the concern is less about an immediate market shock and more about a gradual erosion of pig feed and poultry feed demand if outbreaks persist and herd rebuilding is delayed, traders say.

FEED INGREDIENTS: PRICE MOVEMENTS AND MARKET ADJUSTMENTS

Recent price movements in feed ingredients also point to a market that is adjusting to the recent market challenges.

Soybean meal prices reached it highs in both the Netherlands and Spain. On April 29, Platts assessed EXW Spain soybean meal at Eur382/mt, up 19% from the beginning of 2026. At the same time Platts FOB Netherlands soybean meal price up 17.8% from the beginning of 2026. Market participants said a comfortable supply in Spain weighed on sentiment, limiting further upside and contributing to the softer tone.

Corn prices hit their highest point on May 26, rising by 8%, Platts assessed EXW Spain corn at Eur230/mt on the day. After that, prices marginally declined, which traders said was due to weaker demand. Buyers across Europe were focusing more on the upcoming barley and feed wheat harvests. The expected increase in supplies of these alternative grains reduced short-term demand for corn, pushing prices down further.

GRAIN FORMULATION BECOMES MORE FLEXIBLE

In Europe, the good prices and availability of barley and feed wheat are making the animal feed market more adaptable. A feed procurement manager in Spain said that wheat and barley are increasingly being used instead of corn, thanks to better harvests and lower prices. “The market is becoming more flexible — wheat and barley are being used more in pig feed, especially when corn prices are less attractive,” said a regional feed producer.

An italianRather than relying on a single grain, mills are adjusting formulations more dynamically in response to price spreads, domestic availability, and logistics. That approach is particularly important in a market where raw material costs remain sensitive to weather, trade flows, and geopolitical risk, market participants added.

The war in Ukraine continues to influence European corn imports and freight patterns, prompting some buyers to source more from alternative origins such as the US. At the same time, domestic grain prices and logistical constraints continue to shape local formulation choices.

OUTLOOK: STABILITY AT THE HEADLINE LEVEL, DIVERGENCE BENEATH

While total EU feed production is expected to remain broadly stable through the second half of 2026, according FEFAC forecast report. Pig feed is expected to stay under pressure due to ASF-related herd reductions and localized outbreaks, while poultry and cattle feed provide a more stable base of demand, the same report says.

A key downside risk remains the possibility of ASF becoming entrenched in wild boar populations, which could deepen herd losses and place further pressure on pig feed consumption. That scenario would reinforce the cautious stance already visible among many feed producers and buyers.

At the same time, industry participants are also looking for greater clarity on the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). More detailed guidance and a clearer implementation framework could help reduce some of the uncertainty and operational challenges tied to compliance, particularly around sourcing and traceability requirements.

The European feed market started 2026 facing several key challenges, according to industry sources. These include uncertainty about the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and ongoing animal disease risks from ASF and bird flu. As the year progressed, the conflict in the Middle East added more difficulties, with logistical problems, rising fertilizer costs, and market instability continuing to pose hurdles. The ongoing challenges highlight the importance of flexibility and careful planning for Europe’s feed industry as it moves through 2026.