Nanditha Kinavoor Madathil
Associate Price Reporter
S&P Global Energy

Europe’s feed market is moving through the 2025/26 season under uncertainty, driven by regulatory developments, animal disease risks and shifting global supply dynamics. The postponement of the EU Deforestation Regulation has offered temporary relief to prices, while African Swine Fever and avian influenza continue to weigh on demand and market sentiment.

The European feed market has entered the 2025/26 marketing year under pressure, shaped by regulatory uncertainty and renewed animal disease outbreaks. Two dominant factors — the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and African Swine Fever (ASF) have created price movements, disrupted trade flows, and weakened buyer confidence, setting the stage for another challenging year ahead.

EUDR: REGULATORY DELAY BRINGS RELIEF,  MARKET UNCERTAINTY REMAINS

Market participants broadly welcomed the postponement of the EUDR on Nov. 26, 2025, with implementation now deferred to 2026. “It’s good news that it has been pushed back by another year,” a Netherlands-based trader said. However, traders noted that market sentiment remained cautious, with regulatory developments continuing to drive price volatility.

On Oct. 29, following the European Commission’s confirmation that EUDR would proceed in December, prices strengthened across European soymeal markets. Platts- assessed FOB Netherlands rose by Eur30/mt to Eur336/mt, while the EXW Barcelona price assessment increased by Eur27/mt to Eur342/mt. In November, after the European Parliament voted to delay implementation to December 2026, prices reversed, with FOB Netherlands falling by Eur16/mt and EXW Spain declining by Eur17/mt.

Market sources said the 14% price fluctuation within one month led many participants to step back from spot market activity. “There is relief, but also anxiety about what next year might bring,” another Dutch trader said. Participants continued to cite uncertainty around future implementation timelines as a key factor influencing trading behavior.

Under the revised schedule, EUDR will be implemented in phases, with large and medium operators required to comply by Dec. 30, 2026, followed by small and micro operators by June 30, 2027.

South America remains the EU’s dominant soybean meal supply region, with Brazil accounting for more than 52% of imports over the past five years. Market participants said EUDR compliance requirements could create operational challenges for South American exporters, particularly related to traceability systems and deforestation-free certification requirements.

ASF AND AVIAN FLU: STRUCTURAL RISKS TO FEED DEMAND

Animal disease continues to weigh on the European feed sector, with ASF affecting multiple EU countries throughout 2025. Market participants said ASF remains a key risk factor for the pork and feed sectors, particularly in major pork-producing regions, including Catalonia in Spain.

Spain, the EU’s largest pork exporter, reported an outbreak on Nov. 28, 2025, with subsequent cases reported in wild boar populations in early 2026, according to market participants. The developments have renewed concern across feed and pork markets.

Market participants in Spain’s animal feed sector said they are preparing for lower feed demand in the short to medium term. Although the full impact remains unclear, feed mills told Platts they have been “holding off” on purchasing feed ingredients for 2026.

“ASF is potentially shaving 2026 feed demand. If export demand for pork meat vanishes, demand for feed will shrink,” a feed mill buyer said. 

However, other market participants said the broader market structure remains relatively stable. Spain has prior experience managing ASF outbreaks, and major pork importers are increasingly applying regionalization measures, which market participants said have helped limit the trade impact of localized disease cases.

At the same time, Europe’s poultry sector continues to face recurring challenges from avian influenza. Market participants said outbreaks have disrupted production cycles across several countries, contributing to cautious sentiment in feed markets and restrained procurement activity.

EU TRADE AGREEMENTS: LIMITED IMPACT ON FEED MARKETS

Recent trade agreements between the EU and Mercosur countries, as well as between the EU and India, have had little direct impact on the soybean meal market, industry sources said.

“The trade deal does not eliminate a tariff barrier that is no longer in place. Brazil and Argentina have been Europe’s main suppliers for decades,” a market expert said.

Market participants said the EU–Mercosur agreement does not alter existing tariff structures, supply volumes, or sourcing patterns for soybeans and soybean meal, as Brazil and Argentina have long been the EU’s primary suppliers without significant tariff barriers.

Similarly, under the EU–India free trade agreement, soybeans and soybean meal are classified as sensitive products and are excluded from liberalization. Market participants said this has limited any direct impact on feed markets.

SOUTH AMERICAN SUPPLY AND PRICE DYNAMICS

South America continues to dominate EU soymeal supply flows. Over the past decade, Brazil and Argentina have accounted for 47% and 39% of EU imports, respectively, with the Netherlands and Spain remaining the primary import hubs, according to EU Commission data.

Brazil’s competitive pricing structure continues to anchor EU sourcing strategies. As a result, price movements in Brazil directly influence prices in the Netherlands.

Brazilian grain exporters’ association ANEC on Jan. 13 revised its estimate for soybean exports in January to 3.73 million metric tons, which would be the highest volume ever recorded for the month. Recent expectations of ample Brazilian supply have weighed on European markets, with Platts-assessed Dutch soymeal prices declining sharply. Sentiment turned more bearish following the release of the latest USDA report, which reinforced expectations of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest.

Market participants said that prices for the March-April period have fallen, with buyers continuing to wait on the sidelines. According to the buyers, the market has not yet found a floor, and buyers are still expecting further downside.

Platts assessed FOB soybean meal Netherlands at Eur313.25/mt for February–March loading on Jan. 19, down Eur10.75/mt week-on-week, reflecting bearish supply-side sentiment.

CORN AND FEED GRAIN MARKET SHIFTS

EU corn import patterns have continued to evolve. Ukraine remains the leading supplier, followed by Brazil. However, during the 2025/26 marketing year, market participants said a larger share of import volumes has shifted toward Brazil, largely due to ongoing logistical constraints linked to the war in Ukraine.

In Spain, market participants said that although wheat prices have increased and corn prices have declined, wheat remains competitive in feed rations. The price spread has not been wide enough to incentivize a material substitution from wheat to corn. S&P Global Energy CERA analysts said stable price relationships have supported continued wheat inclusion in feed formulations.

“With the wheat–corn price convergence, demand is shifting to wheat,” a Madrid-based market participant told Platts.

A similar pattern has been observed in Italy, where market participants said demand for feed wheat has been rising as wheat remains more price-competitive than corn in feed rations.

The European feed market is entering 2026 amid multiple structural influences cited by market participants. These include regulatory uncertainty surrounding EUDR, continued animal disease risks from ASF and avian influenza, logistical disruptions linked to Ukraine, and evolving South American supply conditions.

Market sources said these factors are shaping pricing dynamics, trade flows, and procurement behavior across the European feed sector. Participants continue to monitor policy developments, disease management measures, logistics constraints, and South American oilseed supply conditions as key drivers influencing market activity.