Prolonged coastal warming in Peru and extended fishing closures are projected to drive global fishmeal output below 4.6 million metric tons in 2026, the lowest level since the 2016 El Niño crisis. According to IFFO, the sharp contraction in marine raw materials is tightening global aquafeed supply chains and accelerating the shift toward alternative feed ingredients. 

Global production data released by IFFO points to a severe supply contraction in marine ingredients for 2026, primarily driven by ongoing closures in Peru’s North-Centre fishing zone. Despite temporary raw material gains in Chile, Spain, and the United States during August, cumulative year-to-date fishmeal output remains 45% behind 2025 levels, while fish oil production is down 26%.

Dr. Enrico Bachis

IFFO Market Research Director Dr. Enrico Bachis highlighted that total fishmeal availability is expected to drop below 4.6 million metric tons (mt) in 2026, marking the lowest global supply since 2016, when production hit 4.53 million mt. Global fish oil output is similarly projected to fall to 1.15 million mt. While primary pelagic raw material catches have dropped sharply, fishmeal and oil derived from processing by-products, particularly salmon and pangasius, have shown slight year-on-year growth, partially buffering the deficit. 

The supply bottleneck comes at a critical time for major consuming markets. In China, imported fishmeal inventories continued to slide through late September, staying well below historical averages alongside disappointing domestic processing volumes.