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Prolonged coastal warming in Peru and extended fishing closures are projected to drive global fishmeal output below 4.6 million metric tons in 2026, the lowest level since the 2016 El Niño crisis. According to IFFO, the sharp contraction in marine raw materials is tightening global aquafeed supply chains and accelerating the shift toward alternative feed ingredients.

The FAO Food Price Index advanced 1.5 percent in September as logistical constraints and climate risks restricted commodity availability. Cereal quotations surged 5.1 percent, driven by Black Sea shipping disruptions, Strait of Hormuz transit uncertainty, and dry weather in key growing zones.

Corn futures have surged following downgraded US crop estimates and compounding supply chain disruptions across key export regions. Weather-related yield losses and persistent geopolitical bottlenecks continue to tighten global balance sheets.