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Turkey’s Agriculture and Trade Ministers convened with grain industry leaders at TMO to evaluate the 2026 harvest, where record yield expectations promise stable raw material supply for flour and feed millers. Officials emphasized cross-ministerial policy coordination to maintain market stability and food supply security.

Escalating military tensions in the Black Sea basin have pushed attacks on ports and commercial vessels in both Ukraine and Russia to unprecedented levels. The halt of commercial traffic at Ukrainian ports and the growing threat of blocked export corridors in Russia present a severe risk of a 30-to-35-million-ton grain deficit in global markets, threatening a sharp surge in raw material prices.

India has resumed wheat exports after a four-year pause, allowing limited shipments as improved stocks and global supply dynamics create a narrow export window. However, relatively high domestic prices are expected to restrict broader demand, with only urgent buyers likely to turn to Indian supplies.

In an assessment for Miller Magazine, IGC Executive Director Arnaud Petit clarifies that while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns over energy, freight and fertilizer markets, the disruption does not mirror the systemic grain supply shock seen in the Black Sea.

Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly repricing risk across shipping, insurance and energy, pushing up landed grain costs, tightening fertilizer availability and raising food-security concerns in import-dependent markets.

Volatility in commodity prices has revived interest in coordinated supply management, particularly amid rising concerns over food and energy security.