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Global modelling predicts $39.94 billion annual losses from heat stress by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario, but with heat stress already having the potential to cost $1.5 billion annually in the US dairy sector, what can Europe do as it faces similar losses in yield, fertility, feed efficiency and health that are expected with rising Temperature Humidity Index (THI).

EU raw milk output increased to 161.8 million tonnes in 2024, extending the bloc’s decade-long growth trend. The rise reflects steady production gains since 2014, driven largely by strong cheese and butter demand. Germany maintained its position as the leading producer across all major dairy categories.

Dairy commodity prices continue to climb despite weak demand signals and trade risks, but analysts warn that a recalibration may be on the horizon. Milk production is set to grow, potentially tipping the balance in the months ahead.