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Global grain reserves are facing renewed pressure as climate-driven crop reductions in Europe and Black Sea shipping bottlenecks disrupt traditional trade routes. Meanwhile, record soybean output meets robust demand across the feed and energy sectors, keeping market volatility elevated.

Escalating attacks on commercial vessels and ports in the Black Sea have brought grain trade to a standstill, hitting Turkish feed millers who rely on Russia and Ukraine for 72% of their raw materials. Emphasizing that the crisis stems from logistics rather than global supply shortages, TÜRKİYEM-BİR Chairman M. Ülkü Karakuş called for urgent diplomatic efforts to establish a second grain corridor.

While Russia and Türkiye celebrate near-record domestic field yields, escalating security risks and paralyzed shipping lines in the Azov-Black Sea basin are choking global agricultural trade. Facing surging raw material costs and stalled contracts, Turkish grain and feed industries are urging an immediate diplomatic intervention, just as Ankara unveils a new framework plan to restore safe maritime passage.

Russia’s ongoing grain harvest surpassed 100.5 million tons in late August 2026, up 12.5% year-on-year, driven by strong yields across key growing regions. However, escalating security tensions in the Azov-Black Sea basin and Ukraine-related shipping disruptions are creating severe logistics bottlenecks, preventing high production volumes from translating smoothly into global market supply.

Faced with Black Sea logistical bottlenecks and shrinking farmer margins, Russia’s Agriculture Ministry is evaluating a temporary moratorium on floating export taxes for wheat, barley, and corn to sustain export competitiveness. If approved, the policy shift is expected to reshape price dynamics across global grain and feed ingredient markets.

Russia’s major export hub Novorossiysk suspended operations following a targeted drone attack on a key grain terminal, delivering another severe blow to Black Sea trade. For global grain traders, the disruption at Russia’s primary deepwater gateway may further escalate logistics bottlenecks and price volatility across international agricultural markets.

Escalating military tensions in the Black Sea basin have pushed attacks on ports and commercial vessels in both Ukraine and Russia to unprecedented levels. The halt of commercial traffic at Ukrainian ports and the growing threat of blocked export corridors in Russia present a severe risk of a 30-to-35-million-ton grain deficit in global markets, threatening a sharp surge in raw material prices.

Turkey emerged as the largest importer of Ukrainian corn in 2025, accounting for more than 30% of total exports. Customs-based data highlight Turkey’s growing weight in Black Sea corn trade and its willingness to pay among the highest prices.