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Escalating military tensions in the Black Sea basin have pushed attacks on ports and commercial vessels in both Ukraine and Russia to unprecedented levels. The halt of commercial traffic at Ukrainian ports and the growing threat of blocked export corridors in Russia present a severe risk of a 30-to-35-million-ton grain deficit in global markets, threatening a sharp surge in raw material prices.

Turkey emerged as the largest importer of Ukrainian corn in 2025, accounting for more than 30% of total exports. Customs-based data highlight Turkey’s growing weight in Black Sea corn trade and its willingness to pay among the highest prices.