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WASDE Spotlight: Shifting dynamics in wheat, coarse grains, and livestock production

14 November 20233 min reading

In the latest WASDE report, crucial insights unfold, spotlighting notable shifts such as increased U.S. wheat supplies and a global reduction in coarse grain production. This monthly analysis dives into pivotal trends shaping the feed ingredient landscape and the livestock sector, providing key takeaways for industry observers.

The recently released World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) October report provides valuable insights into the global agricultural landscape, with significant implications for feed ingredients and the livestock industry. Let’s delve into the key points related to wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds, and the livestock sector.

WHEAT OUTLOOK

U.S. Perspective: The U.S. wheat outlook for 2023/24 indicates higher supplies, increased domestic use, and unchanged exports. Domestic use, particularly in feed and residual categories, has seen a notable rise, impacting the season-average farm price.

Global Landscape: Globally, the outlook for wheat in 2023/24 reflects reduced supplies, lower consumption, decreased trade, and lower stocks. Factors such as reduced production in Australia, Kazakhstan, and Ethiopia contribute to this outlook.

COARSE GRAINS

U.S. Corn Outlook: The 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook reveals reduced supplies, lower feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks. Lower production and beginning stocks contribute to a decline in exports, with an impact on ending stocks and the season-average corn price.

Global Coarse Grain Production: Globally, coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecasted to decrease, with adjustments in corn production for Argentina, Moldova, the EU, and Paraguay. Trade changes include larger corn exports for Argentina and Paraguay but a reduction for the United States.

OILSEEDS

U.S. Oilseed Production: The 2023/24 U.S. oilseed production is forecasted lower, driven by reductions in soybean, cottonseed, peanut, rapeseed, and sunflower seed production. Soybean production is down due to lower yields, impacting exports and ending stocks.

Global Oilseed Production: Foreign oilseed production is lowered, mainly due to decreases in soybean and peanut output for India and lower canola production for Canada. Global soybean exports are impacted by reduced U.S. exports, partially offset by higher shipments from Brazil.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY

Red Meat and Poultry Production: The forecast for 2023 red meat and poultry production is adjusted, with higher beef and pork production but lower broiler and turkey production. The increase in total slaughter, coupled with changes in dressed weights, contributes to the adjustments.

Trade and Price Adjustments: Beef imports are raised, reflecting strong demand, while exports are lowered due to increased competition. Pork imports increase for 2023 and 2024, and broiler exports are raised for 2023 but lowered for 2024. Price forecasts for various sectors, including cattle, hogs, broilers, and turkeys, see adjustments based on current market conditions.

Dairy Sector: The milk production forecast for 2023 is raised, with unchanged forecasts for 2024. Price adjustments are observed in fat basis imports, skim-solids basis imports, and exports, reflecting changes in butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and dry whey.

In conclusion, the WASDE report paints a dynamic picture for feed ingredients and the livestock industry. Factors such as production changes, trade adjustments, and price forecasts will influence the global agricultural landscape in the coming months. Stakeholders in the feed and livestock sectors should closely monitor these developments for strategic planning and decision-making.

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