The natural flow of life says feed prices will further increase

12 April 20223 min reading
Cemalettin Kanaş

While the population dealing with agriculture and livestock is decreasing, the increase in the average age is far from being a positive picture in terms of Turkey's food security position for the next one or two decades. In this case, the country's decision-makers need to pay attention to the farmer. When microphones are handed to the farmers who have been complaining about feed costs for long years, it is now seen that the extent of the unrest is much higher now. Some of them have stopped complaining and just are sending their cows to the slaughterhouse.
When we shed light on the increase in input prices, things change. The pandemic, which entered our lives with interruptions in the supply chain in its first months, now made us all accept the fact that price increases are permanent. The Russia-Ukraine war, which broke out before a decent damage assessment for the pandemic has been made, carried the commodity prices to a completely different dimension.
Corn and barley prices quadrupled compared to the beginning of the pandemic. Prices for bran have almost quintupled. Energy costs have recently tripled, afflicting business owners even more than households. The situation is no different in logistics, which is another significant cost item. When it comes to livestock, the numbers are clear in terms of understanding where the input costs come from in terms of feed, which is known to constitute 70 percent of the expenses. Even if it is reasonable from the farmers' perspective that they are disturbed by the increases in feed prices, it is not possible to prevent these increases under such conditions.
Given the current situation, the future does not look encouraging either. In the light of the unpleasant experiences in Syria, the world has to also keep a close eye on the war in Ukraine. The war between two countries that are quite important for feed ingredients brings economic consequences as well as humanitarian tragedies. While it was claimed that Kyiv would fall in a week in the first days of the occupation, it has now been accepted that the war will not end overnight. Considering both the difficulties in agricultural production under war conditions and the situation of the ports where the harvested product will be shipped, it seems certain that the forthcoming season will be hard as well.
We need to be realistic here, if not pessimistic. It doesn't take a prophet to see that prices will continue to rise in the forthcoming period. The natural flow of life says that feed prices will further increase.

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