BLOG

SovEcon lowers 2024/25 Russian wheat export forecast amid rising export tax and regulatory changes

31 October 20242 min reading

SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has revised its 2024/25 Russian grain export forecasts, lowering its wheat export estimate to 45.9 million metric tons (MMT) from 47.6 MMT. Corn exports are now projected at 2.4 MMT, up from 2.2 MMT, while the barley export forecast remains unchanged at 2.4 MMT. The total export forecast for grains, pulses, and processed products has been reduced to 53.6 MMT from 55.4 MMT.

The reduction in wheat export estimates reflects a decrease in the crop forecast and increased intervention by the Ministry of Agriculture in market operations. 

In October, the wheat crop forecast was lowered to 81.5 MMT from 82.9 MMT due to rapidly declining yields in Siberia.

The export tax is rising as wheat prices increase, in line with the Russian Agriculture Ministry’s guidelines. The average price index used for weekly tax calculations rose to $222/MT in October from $213/MT. Each $10 increase in the price index results in a $7 increase in the export tax.

An additional factor impacting wheat exports this season is the Ministry of Agriculture's new policy, "Russian grain must be delivered to consumers by Russian exporters only." This policy is expected to negatively impact many small and medium-sized exporters who source wheat domestically and sell it on an FOB basis to other firms.



Articles in News Category
24 June 20192 min reading

Rainer Schulz elected unanimously to Board of Directors

Uzwil (Switzerland), June 24, 2019 – Rainer Schulz, former CEO of the global REHAU Group, has been ...

30 April 20212 min reading

New generation of sodium butyrate in ball-shaped granules

Singao is the first company in China to have successfully developed and synthesized sodium butyrate...

28 November 20232 min reading

AFIA's EMC tackles feed industry's labor and supply chain challenges