The OECD–FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024–2033 reveals that emerging economies will drive global food market dynamics, with China’s influence waning as India and Southeast Asia rise. While global agricultural productivity is set to improve, the persistent increase in GHG emissions highlights the urgent need to address food loss and waste to enhance food security and reduce undernourishment. Global food consumption is projected to increase by 1.2% annually due to population and income growth. In most regions, the growth of feed use of crops is expected to outpace growth in direct food use, driven by the projected shift to higher shares of animal-derived foods in diets and the resulting expansion and intensification of livestock production.

The OECD–FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024–2033 highlights pivotal trends shaping global agriculture over the next decade. Emerging economies, particularly India and Southeast Asia, will increasingly influence global food and agricultural markets, with China’s role diminishing. Caloric intake is set to rise by 7% in middle-income countries, but low-income regions will lag with a 4% increase, falling short of the zero hunger target by 2030. Despite a projected 5% rise in agricultural GHG emissions, improvements in productivity are expected to drive efficiency. Reducing food loss and waste could cut GHG emissions by 4% and decrease undernourishment by 153 million people. Well-functioning international markets will remain crucial for food security, even as real international commodity prices are expected to decline slightly, potentially not reflecting in local food prices.

Summary of key messages

1. Emerging economies have increasingly driven global agricultural and fisheries market developments over the last 20 years and are expected to continue to do so over the next decade.

2. The role of the People’s Republic of China in driving global food and agricultural consumption is waning, whilst India and Southeast Asia are expected to gain influence, driven by their growing urban populations and increasing affluence.

3. Calorie intake is expected to increase by 7% in middle-income countries, largely due to greater consumption of staples, livestock products and fats. Calorie intake in low-income countries will grow at 4%, too slowly to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal target of zero hunger by 2030 (SDG2).

4. Agriculture’s global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity is expected to decline, as growth will be based on productivity improvements rather than cultivated land and livestock herd expansions, although direct emissions from agriculture will still increase by 5%.

5. Halving food loss and waste has the potential to reduce global agricultural GHG emissions by 4% and the number of undernourished people by 153 million by the year 2030.

6. Well-functioning international agricultural commodity markets will remain important for global food security, as 20% of calories are traded and rural livelihoods can benefit from participation in markets and global agrifood value chains.

7. A slight fall in real international reference prices for main agricultural commodities is projected over the next ten years but this may not be reflected in local retail food prices.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 provides a comprehensive analysis of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels. The Outlook has been produced jointly by the OECD and FAO for 20 years, in collaboration with their Members and international commodity organizations. It serves as a structured reference for policy planning, especially in the context of the recent global COVID-19 pandemic, rising geopolitical tensions and the increasing impact of climate change. This 20th joint Agricultural Outlook reflects on the evolution of global agriculture over the past two decades and provides projections through to 2033.

Emerging economies have increasingly driven global agricultural and fisheries market developments over the last 20 years and are expected to continue to do so over the next decade.

The role of the People’s Republic of China in driving global food and agricultural consumption is waning, whilst India and Southeast Asian countries are expected to expand their global consumption share, driven by their growing urban population and increasing affluence.

The last 20 years have seen the consumption of agricultural commodities expand, driven mainly by population and income growth in low- and middle-income economies. These countries have also rapidly increased their production through technology and innovation advances, and by increasing the use of their natural resources. The resulting shifts in agricultural production and consumption locations have led to changes in international agricultural trade patterns.

The Outlook baseline projections suggest that the influence of the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”), India and Southeast Asian countries on global agrifood systems will continue to grow over the coming ten years. However, while China contributed 28% of global consumption growth in the previous decade, its share of additional demand over the coming decade is expected to fall to 11%, attributed to a stabilization of nutrition patterns, slower income growth and declining population. Conversely, India and Southeast Asian countries are expected to account for 31% of global consumption growth by 2033, driven by their growing urban population and increasing affluence.

Figure 1: Contribution of food groups to total daily per capita calorie food intake
Note: Estimates are based on historical time series from the FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheets database which are extended with the Outlook database. Products not covered in the Outlook are extended by trends. Staples include cereals, roots and tubers and pulses. Animal products include meat, dairy products (excluding butter), eggs and fish. Fats include butter and vegetable oil. Sweeteners include sugar and HFCS. The category other includes other crop and animal products. MDER stands for minimum dietary energy requirement.

Total use of agricultural and fisheries products is projected to grow by 1.0% annually over the next decade, located largely in low- and middle-income countries. Global food consumption is projected to increase by 1.2% annually due to population and income growth. In most regions, the growth of feed use of crops is expected to outpace growth in direct food use, driven by the projected shift to higher shares of animal-derived foods in diets and the resulting expansion and intensification of livestock production.

In middle-income countries, average daily per capita calorie intake will increase by 7% by 2033, driven by greater consumption of staples, livestock products and fats. In low income countries average calorie intake is expected to grow by only 4%, indicating that the global community will fail to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 target of eliminating hunger by 2030. Income constraints in these countries are also hampering the transition to more nutrient- and protein-rich diets based on animal products, fish and seafood, vegetables and fruits, leading to a continuing heavy reliance on staples. Dietary preferences in high-income countries reflect growing concerns over the links between diets, health and sustainability, as evidenced by a slightly declining intake of fats and sweeteners, as well as shifting and stabilizing protein intake over the coming decade.

Figure 2: Direct GHG emissions from crop and livestock production by activity
Note: Estimates are based on historical time series from the FAOSTAT Climate Change: Agrifood systems emissions databases which are extended with the Outlook database. CO2 equivalents are calculated using the global warming potential of each gas as reported in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Emission types that are not related to any Outlook variable (organic soil cultivation and burning savannahs) are kept constant at their latest available value. The category ‘’other’’ includes direct GHG emissions from burning crop residues, burning savanna, crop residues, and cultivation of organic soils.

Agriculture’s global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity is expected to decline as production growth will be based on productivity improvements rather than cultivated land expansion although direct emissions from agriculture will still increase by 5%.

Over the coming decade, the carbon intensity of agricultural production is projected to continue to fall across the seven regions studied in this Outlook as direct agricultural GHG emissions (according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) definition) grow more slowly than agricultural production. However, despite this relative decoupling, growing agricultural production will lead to a 5% absolute increase in direct GHG emissions.