Global cereal production in 2024 is projected to decline slightly, driven by reduced maize output in the U.S. and lower wheat and barley harvests in Australia and the EU. While feed use of maize is expected to grow, overall global cereal stocks are forecasted to drop, with rice production and trade remaining strong despite challenges in the wheat and maize sectors.
The latest FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief indicates that global cereal production in 2024 is forecasted at just under 2,841 million tonnes, reflecting a slight 0.6 percent decline from the previous year. A key factor behind this downward revision is a significant reduction in maize output in the United States due to late-season moisture stress affecting yields. However, increased production estimates for China and the European Union have partially offset this decline. Wheat and barley production forecasts have also been trimmed, reflecting lower harvest expectations in Australia and the EU. Meanwhile, global rice production is set to reach a record high of 539.4 million tonnes (milled basis) in 2024/25, supported by increased output in China, Mali, Nepal, and Vietnam.
WHEAT OUTLOOK SHOWS EU RECOVERY, RUSSIA STRUGGLES, INDIA OPTIMISTIC
Winter wheat planting in the Northern Hemisphere concluded in January, with the European Union expecting a rise in sowings, particularly for soft wheat, led by France and Germany. Favorable weather conditions have improved yield prospects for 2025, indicating a potential recovery from last year’s lower output. The United Kingdom is also expecting a rebound in winter wheat area after adverse planting conditions in 2024. However, the outlook for Russia is less optimistic due to poor weather, reduced plantings, and increased risks of winterkill. In contrast, India’s wheat production forecast remains positive, driven by strong market prices and favorable weather conditions.
COARSE GRAINS AND MAIZE DEVELOPMENTS
In the Southern Hemisphere, the 2025 maize harvest is set to begin in the second quarter of the year. Argentina’s maize area is projected to shrink due to concerns over stunt disease, though yield prospects remain favorable with expected beneficial weather. Brazil may see a slight increase in maize plantings due to stronger prices, but potential delays in soybean sowing could impact the safrinha maize crop. South Africa has expanded maize plantings in response to record-high prices, and improved weather conditions are expected to support average to above-average yields.
MAIZE USE INCREASES FOR FEED, WHILE WHEAT USE DECLINES
FAO projects global cereal utilization in 2024/25 to increase by 0.9 percent to 2,869 million tonnes, with maize leading the growth in feed use. Wheat utilization is expected to remain stable, with an increase in food consumption offsetting a decline in feed use. Global rice utilization is forecasted to reach 537.2 million tonnes, marking a 1.9 percent rise, with higher consumption expected in several African countries.
Global cereal trade is projected to decline by 5.6 percent to 483.5 million tonnes in 2024/25. Coarse grain trade is forecasted to drop by 6.8 percent, driven by weaker Chinese demand for barley and maize, along with lower exports from key suppliers such as Australia, the EU, Brazil, India, and Russia. Wheat trade is also expected to contract, with China’s imports forecasted to hit their lowest level since 2019/20. Russia’s wheat export pace is slowing, partly due to a newly imposed export quota of 10.6 million tonnes—the country’s lowest in five years. In contrast, international rice trade is expected to grow, reaching 59.1 million tonnes in 2025, supported by continued strong demand and adjustments in export policies from key suppliers.
GLOBAL CEREAL STOCKS FORECASTED TO DECLINE BY 2.2%
FAO has revised its forecast for global cereal stocks downward, projecting a 2.2 percent decline to 866.6 million tonnes by the end of the 2024/25 season. Coarse grain stocks are expected to fall by 3.8 percent, with a sharp reduction in U.S. maize inventories due to lower production and increased export demand. Global wheat stocks are also set to decline, with China’s inventory falling by 3 million tonnes due to lower anticipated imports. However, rice stocks are expected to reach a record high of 204 million tonnes, driven by stock rebuilding among importing nations and ample reserves in key exporting countries.
CONCLUSION
FAO’s latest assessment highlights a tightening global cereal market, with declining stocks and shifting trade patterns shaping the outlook for 2024/25. While rice production and trade remain strong, the wheat and maize sectors are facing challenges from weather variability, trade restrictions, and shifting demand. In response, key exporting and importing nations may introduce policy measures such as export controls, subsidies, or strategic stockpiling to stabilize domestic markets. As the season progresses, developments in key producing regions—along with potential government interventions—will be crucial in determining the overall balance of global grain and feed markets.