İbrahim Oğuz
Senior Agricultural Expert
Frankfurt School of Finance & Management Turkey

The desire to foresee the future is as old as humanity itself. Today, that desire is being reshaped by artificial intelligence and its immense data-processing power. From agriculture to financial markets, this new technology holds the potential to transform decision-making—but it also raises profound questions: Can AI truly know the future, and if so, will that knowledge be accessible to all?

Since the dawn of humanity, people have sought to predict the future. In ancient Egypt, oracles held significant influence over state decisions. History tells us that Pharaoh King Djoser, after a troubling dream, sought interpretations from his era’s seers. When they failed to provide a satisfactory explanation, it caused ripples in Egypt’s governance. Imprisoned at the time, the Prophet Joseph interpreted the Pharaoh’s dream, foretelling seven years of abundance followed by seven years of famine. According to the story, Egypt stockpiled wheat during the bountiful years, ensuring survival during the famine.

Today, many still turn to fortune-telling, dream interpretation, or astrology to glimpse the future. Economists and statisticians, however, rely on historical data and assumptions to make economic forecasts. They compete to deliver the most accurate and attention-grabbing predictions. Financial wizard George Soros, in his book The New Paradigm for Financial Markets, underscores the importance of accurate forecasting. Similarly, Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, vividly describes in The Coming Wave how artificial intelligence will transform the world and humanity.

If we asked you this question, what would your answer be: Can artificial intelligence determine wheat prices? You could simply respond with “yes” or “no.” But at the very least, all of us would like access to AI-generated insights that help us make better predictions in our line of work. Let’s say you’re a farmer. You probably wonder, “If I plant this crop each year, what kind of price can I expect?” Or perhaps you’re a trader, processor, or someone tracking commodity futures on the stock exchange. Wouldn’t you want to accurately forecast how prices or market movements will shift at specific times — so you can buy at the right moment and sell when it’s most profitable? Today, we rely on our experience to make these decisions. But in the very near future, we’ll have access to far more realistic and data-driven forecasts — generated by systems that analyze millions of data points. Wouldn’t you want that kind of deep knowledge at your fingertips? We all would — and we all will.

Whether you call it “artificial intelligence,” “deep learning,” or “machine intelligence,” we’re entering an era where it will profoundly shape our economic, social, and cultural lives. AI already appears poised to redefine global events. As discussions swirl about what machine intelligence can achieve, one question looms: Can AI accurately predict the future? Specifically, can it forecast agricultural commodity prices? What conditions must be met for accurate predictions? And can everyone access these algorithmic insights, which have the power to make or break fortunes overnight? These are the questions worth debating.

So, what can AI do in this regard? To get technical, AI is expected to refine tools already used in statistics, such as Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci Retracement, Stochastic Oscillators, and Average Directional Index, with far greater precision. Beyond this, predictive modeling is likely to reach new heights. For instance, AI could analyze next year’s climate data to predict wheat yield fluctuations and their likelihood. It could calculate the impact of supply-demand shifts in cotton on corn production and global corn prices with remarkable accuracy. With such granular insights, AI’s ability to predict commodity prices seems not just plausible but probable.

You might wonder: Can AI truly predict prices shaped by countless natural variables (climate, soil, biology) and the collective decisions of millions of farmers and stakeholders? Can it analyze both climatic impacts on crop yields and the behavioral trends of producers and market players? With cloud computing, 6G infrastructure, and superior data-processing capabilities, can we honestly argue that human-created machine intelligence won’t outperform human reasoning in delivering accurate results?

But when we talk about agricultural commodity prices, aren’t we missing something? Markets, by their nature, include an element of manipulation. Without manipulation, what drives price volatility in a free market? Can AI detect manipulations, or will it become a tool for creating them? I can’t predict the answer yet. The problem is this: If one person knows the future, soon everyone might. But if everyone knows, doesn’t that contradict the very nature of price formation in economics? If so, will AI’s benefits be accessible to all, or will only a select few profit, leaving the majority behind? These questions linger.

If AI can know everything and predict the future, will it level the playing field, making geniuses, average minds, the educated, and the uneducated equal? Would equality make us happier? Would it render communication or writing meaningless? I don’t know.

As I write this in 2025, AI has already sparked revolutions. China’s DeepSeek AI caused billions in losses for U.S. tech stocks overnight. The fallout hit Japanese chipmakers too. Social media is now flooded with ads promising AI-driven “buy-sell signals” for stock trading. Things are moving faster—and with more uncertainty—than we expected.

In my view, predicting the future with artificial intelligence — particularly forecasting agricultural commodity prices like wheat — will certainly become possible. However, access to such valuable data will likely be in the hands of those who develop closed AI systems. For now, this vast software ecosystem is still in its data-collection phase, luring us in with captivating promises and impressive language. Will the “artificial Josephs” of the 21st century bring abundance or famine? Will they ignite new wars or establish peace? Will they pave the way for unjust enrichment, or will they promote fair distribution of wealth? Will they drive companies and even nations into bankruptcy, or ensure greater economic balance? We are entering an era where our future may be handed over to the dominance — and mercy — of a software universe built by the brilliant minds of ruthless capitalism. One thing is certain: natural human intelligence is already beginning to see and question the ethical dangers and societal risks posed by artificial machine intelligence.