USDA’s last monthly oilseed market report indicated that Brazil’s soybean exports reached a record. According to the data, the South American country exported 10.3 million tons of soybeans during previous October and November. Last year’s exports for the same period were also highly above the average.

Brazil exported a record 10.3 million tons of soybeans in the 2 months ending November 2019, exceeding last year’s 10.0 million tons for the same period. Both 2018 and 2019 were significantly above the average 2.6 million tons shipped between 2013 and 2017. While the high volume shipped in 2018 came during a period when U.S. producers were shut out of China and Argentina supplies were tight, shipments this year occurred despite ongoing U.S. sales to China and higher volumes being shipped from Argentina.

The record volume shipped from October to November reflects a number of forces at work including abundant supplies, competitive pricing, and producers’ willingness to sell as local prices reached their highest levels since October 2018. Current soybean port prices are near 1,540 reals per ton, up 18 percent from levels observed at harvest. About half of this increase is due to a rise in Brazil’s dollar denominated export price. The remaining half is in response to a weakening currency that has declined 13 percent since the February harvest. With prices higher and a weak real providing pricing power in export markets, sales and shipments are on the rise.

An additional factor is the higher volume available for shipment in October-November 2019. Despite entering the year with 5 million tons lower supply, total exports and crush have fallen 10 million tons behind last year’s pace. This resulted in October 1 supplies roughly 5 million tons above last year, adding support to the strong late-season shipments.