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In an assessment for Miller Magazine, IGC Executive Director Arnaud Petit clarifies that while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns over energy, freight and fertilizer markets, the disruption does not mirror the systemic grain supply shock seen in the Black Sea.

Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly repricing risk across shipping, insurance and energy, pushing up landed grain costs, tightening fertilizer availability and raising food-security concerns in import-dependent markets.

Ukraine’s corn exports are projected to rise in the 2025-26 marketing year (October-September) from last season, as higher production and ample supply are expected to offset harvest delays and ongoing logistical disruptions, according to S&P Global Energy CERA analysts.