In 2024, Turkish chicken meat exports are estimated to significantly decrease by 50 percent to 270,000 MT due to the export restriction imposed as of May 2024. The restrictions aim to address rising domestic prices amidst a backdrop of high inflation and production costs.

The Turkish Ministry of Commerce has set a new export limit on chicken meat to manage the escalating prices within the domestic market. This restriction, effective from May 1 to December 31, 2024, caps exports at a maximum of 10,000 metric tons (MT) per month, totaling 80,000 MT for the year. According to a recent USDA (US Department of Agriculture) report prepared by Sinem Duyum, Agricultural Specialist at the U.S Embassy in Ankara, Turkey, and released on June 12, 2024, this measure is expected to result in a substantial 50 percent reduction in chicken meat exports, bringing the total down to 270,000 MT for 2024.

Chart 1. Poultry Meat Production, Export and Consumption, 2019- 2023 
(Source: TurkSTAT (TÜİK) and Trade Data Monitor, LLC.)

Turkey, which produces 2.4 million metric tons (MMT) of chicken meat annually, typically exports one-third of its production. However, due to the new restrictions, this figure will be significantly lower in 2024. The USDA report attributes the restrictions to efforts aimed at curbing inflation, which saw a staggering 75.45 percent annual rate in May 2024, the highest in the last 18 months. Notably, poultry meat prices have surged by 107 percent over the past year, making it a significant driver of inflation.

CHALLENGES IN CHICKEN MEAT PRODUCTION

Production of chicken meat in Turkey is estimated to see a negligible increase of 2 percent in 2024, reaching 2.38 MMT. This modest growth is attributed to high feed prices, ongoing uncertainties in export markets, severe drought expectations, and challenges in securing breeding materials due to high import costs and outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Despite these challenges, some relief is anticipated from expected decreases in soy and corn prices this year.

Chart 2. Poultry Meat Prices at Domestic Markets, 2023-2024, Comparison
(Source: Medium incomes supermarkets, the average prices for whole chicken meat)

In 2023, chicken meat production was recorded at 2.33 MMT, a 3.1 percent decrease from the previous year, largely due to high production costs and a severe drought impacting domestic feed production. The USDA report highlights that these factors, coupled with decreased supplies of imported breeding materials, have strained the production capabilities.

Domestic consumption of chicken meat is forecasted to slightly increase in 2024 to 1.9 MMT, reflecting stagnated production, increased exports, and high market prices. In 2023, consumption was forecasted slightly higher than 2022 at 1.87 MMT, driven by decreased exports despite high poultry meat prices in retail markets.

GLOBAL MARKET POSITION AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

Export reductions in 2024 are expected to significantly impact Turkey’s position in the global poultry market. Turkey, ranked 8th in global chicken meat exports in 2023, saw a reduction in exports by 25 percent to 451,839 MT due to several factors, including HPAI outbreaks and economic uncertainties. The USDA report emphasizes that the new export restriction will exacerbate this downward trend, causing concerns among Turkish exporters about losing their market share, which was valued at $1 billion.

Chart 3. Turkish Chicken Meat Exports by Country, 2021-2023
(Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC.)

In addition to poultry meat, egg exports from Turkey are projected to increase in 2024, driven by strong demand from neighboring countries like Iran. In 2023, Turkey exported 62 million eggs, marking a significant rise from the previous year.

The USDA report also notes ongoing issues within the Turkish poultry industry, including a preliminary investigation by the Turkish Competition Authority against ten poultry producing companies for alleged unfair price increases in the domestic market. Administrative fines were imposed on eight firms found in violation.

Overall, the new export restrictions imposed by Turkey’s Ministry of Commerce aim to stabilize domestic prices and address inflation but pose significant challenges to the country’s poultry export market and production capabilities.