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USDA expects record wheat production in 2023/24 season

26 June 20233 min reading

In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) for June, USDA presented a positive outlook for global wheat production in the 2023/24 season. USDA raised its global wheat yield forecast by 11 million from May and expected a record production of 800 million tons. The Ministry expects global wheat consumption to rise to 796.1 million tons in 2023/24, driven by high feed and residual use in China, Russia and India.

In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE), released on June 9, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) provided positive forecasts for global wheat, coarse grains and rice production. In its May report, USDA estimated the global wheat yield for the 2023/24 season at 789 m t, while the new forecast is 800 m t. Global wheat supply is also expected to reach 1,066.9 m t. This is mainly due to higher production in major wheat producing countries such as Russia, India, the European Union (EU) and Ukraine. Russia's production is forecast to increase by 3.5 m t to 85 m t, up 3.5 m t from the previous report, thanks to favorable weather conditions, especially after abundant spring rains. USDA has also raised India's wheat production forecast by 3.5 m t and now forecasts a yield of 113.5 m t. EU wheat production is expected to reach 140.5 million tons, 1.5 m t higher than the previous report, while Ukraine's production is expected to reach 17.5 m t, with a one m t increase.

USDA projects global wheat consumption for 2023/24 to increase to 796.1 million tons, driven by higher feed and residual use in China, Russia and India. Feed wheat supplies are expected to increase in China due to heavy rains in Henan province during the winter wheat harvest.

World wheat trade is also projected at 212.6 million tons, with export increases expected from Russia, the EU, India and Ukraine. As a result, global wheat ending stocks for the 2023/24 season are expected to increase to 270.7 million tons, with increases in stocks in India, Russia and the EU.

The USDA report also reveals positive prospects for global coarse grain production. With higher corn production in Ukraine contributing to the upward revision, the world coarse grain production forecast for the 2023/24 season was raised to 1 billion 513 million tons, up 3.8 million tons from the previous report. USDA revised its global corn yield forecast to one billion 222 million tons and expects world rice production to be 520 million tons.


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