Turkey’s cattle numbers are set to contract further in 2026 as persistent slaughter pressure, soaring feed costs, and low profitability continue to erode herd size. USDA’s latest assessment warns that the country’s heavy dependence on feeder cattle imports has failed to stabilize production, while ongoing disease challenges and rising input prices strain both dairy and beef operations.
Turkey’s cattle inventory is forecast to decline by another 4% in 2026, falling to 14.3 million head. Sector experts point to sustained high slaughter rates—including breeding animals—driven by escalating feed expenses, drought-related forage shortages, and low farm-gate milk prices. Despite the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry’s repeated emphasis on national production, imports of feeder cattle remain the principal tool used to fill the domestic supply gap.
Annual calf losses estimated at 400,000 to 500,000 head reflect structural weaknesses in farm management and animal health. This figure mirrors the volume of cattle Turkey imports annually, underscoring long-standing inefficiencies in herd growth. Dairy cow numbers continue to fall, yet restrictions on high-quality dairy genetics imports persist. While raw milk output showed a modest rise in 2024 due to improved artificial insemination practices, producers emphasize that unstable prices and inadequate profitability undermine long-term sustainability.
USDA (US Department of Agriculture) notes that the June 2025 SAT-1 FMD outbreak triggered nationwide emergency measures and accelerated slaughter patterns. Although the FMD Institute rapidly produced vaccines and intervention teams were deployed in high-risk provinces, producers report that falling slaughter prices during the outbreak led to additional financial strain, especially among smallholders.
IMPORTS, COST PRESSURES, AND SHIFTING FEED DYNAMICS
Rising input prices, especially feed, fuel, electricity, and labor, continue to dominate producers’ concerns. Feed accounts for up to 75% of total production costs, and Turkey imports roughly 60% of the raw materials used in compound feed manufacturing. Drought and water-management issues have pushed many western dairy farmers to shift from corn to sorghum as a feed component, highlighting the sector’s vulnerability to climate variability.
Cattle imports are projected at 450,000 head in 2026, mostly feeder animals from Brazil and Uruguay. Authorities also continue to authorize limited breeding cattle imports in an effort to slow the contraction of the national herd. However, controversies have mounted: a shipment from Uruguay was recently rejected after major documentation discrepancies, raising concerns about reliability and certification integrity in some supplying countries.
Despite strong demand from Turkish producers, the ban on U.S. cattle imports remains in place following detections of HPAI in U.S. dairy herds in 2024, even though WOAH guidelines do not support such restrictions.
Beef production is forecast to edge up to 1.8 MMT in 2026 as herd liquidation continues, though slaughter weights—now averaging 270–300 kg—remain far below historic norms. Consumption is projected at 2 MMT, but industry representatives argue that official per-capita beef consumption figures overstate reality.
To curb price inflation, the state-controlled Meat and Milk Board is increasing beef imports, primarily from Poland. Yet retail beef prices continue to rise despite higher import volumes, reflecting structural weaknesses throughout the value chain.
Turkey has long attempted to stabilize meat prices and expand its cattle population through imports, but USDA’s latest analysis suggests these efforts have not resolved underlying productivity challenges. Without improvements in animal health management, genetics, pasture efficiency, and profitability, herd contraction may continue to limit the country’s long-term livestock potential.