SovEcon projects Russia’s wheat exports to drop significantly in 2024/25, citing rising export duties and seasonal logistics barriers in the Black Sea. The latest measures are expected to curb domestic trade for small and medium-sized firms.

Russia’s SovEcon has further lowered its wheat export forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year to 45.9 million tonnes, down from 47.6 million tonnes projected last month. This revision, the lowest estimate since the 2021/22 season, comes amid deteriorating crop conditions and heightened export restrictions. The consultancy attributes part of this reduction to rising wheat export duties, which surged to 2,228 rubles per tonne in late October, up from 1,246 rubles a month earlier.

SovEcon emphasized that the raised export duty could rise further in response to government recommendations aimed at pushing up export prices, adding pressure to domestic supply chains. Seasonal factors will also weigh on shipments, as worsening weather in the Black Sea and the closure of river navigation routes begin to disrupt transport through November.

The recent restrictions, which ban foreign intermediaries from selling Russian wheat to state buyers, are expected to particularly impact smaller traders operating domestically. "This will lead to the closure of businesses for a significant number of small and medium traders organizing domestic deliveries,” SovEcon stated.