Mehmet Mert Kesti
Trader
AVES

Are soybean prices in the 2025/26 season still driven only by weather or yield? Not anymore. Soy has evolved into a strategic system shaped by policies, sustainability regulations, and geopolitical balances. From U.S.–China trade dynamics and the EUDR rollout to biofuel incentives and South American supply trends, the market is being redefined by new risks and opportunities. Reading the balance of the future correctly now requires viewing all market parameters from the right perspective.

INTRODUCTION: AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY, STRATEGIC SYSTEM

Soybeans today account for around 60% of global oilseed production. In the 21st-century economy, soybeans are not merely an agricultural product; they represent a strategic system at the intersection of energy, protein, food security, and sustainability policies. While supply growth is expected for the 2025 season, the real shift is occurring in the realms of policy and sustainability.

Explaining soybean prices is no longer possible with rainfall, planted area, or yield figures alone. Market direction is increasingly shaped by political agendas and sustainability regulations. Biofuel incentives, deforestation restrictions under the EUDR, carbon taxes, and traceability requirements have transformed soy from a conventional agricultural commodity into a politically significant asset. In other words, the drivers of oilseed market prices are no longer defined solely by production; policy and sustainability now play an equally decisive role.

GLOBAL PRODUCTION AND DEMAND OUTLOOK

For the 2025/2026 season, global soybean supply is projected to reach a record level of around 426 million tons. The expected rise in output is largely attributed to the expansion of cultivated areas in South America and advancements in agricultural technology.

About 80% of global soybean production comes from Brazil, the United States, and Argentina. These three countries remain the key players that shape the market both in terms of production volume and export capacity.

In the U.S., soybean acreage has contracted compared to last year, while yields have shown only modest improvement. As a result, total production is expected to decline, though domestic crushing activity is anticipated to rise. The outputs of this process, namely soybean oil and meal, carry strategic importance across multiple industries. Soybean oil serves as both an energy source for biofuel production and a food ingredient for human consumption, whereas soybean meal, with its high protein content, is a vital component in animal feed, supporting livestock production. Thanks to biofuel investments and tax incentives, demand for oil remains strong, and increased crushing capacity is expected to boost meal exports compared to recent years.

In Brazil, the picture looks somewhat different. Data indicate an expansion in planted area, yet regional yield disparities may emerge. This season, the strength of the Real and rising logistics costs could make it more difficult for Brazil to turn its record production into profitable export performance.

Argentina, on the other hand, has shown recovery after the drought of 2024. Although production has once again approached the 50-million-ton mark, high export taxes continue to undermine the competitiveness of its crushing industry. Across South America, this creates a clear contrast between increasing volumes and shrinking profit margins.

While global supply reaches record highs, demand is undergoing a qualitative rather than quantitative transformation. Alongside the physical rise in production and consumption, greater emphasis is being placed on quality and sustainability. As livestock production grows in countries such as India, Vietnam, and Indonesia, carbon footprint concerns and food security issues are increasingly complicating the purchasing decisions of importing nations. In short, demand is expanding not only in volume but also in the diversity of its criteria.

SOYBEANS: A COMMODITY IN THE SHADOW OF TARIFFS OR A STRATEGIC INSTRUMENT?

Soybeans have evolved from being merely an agricultural crop into a geopolitical tool of influence. Today, soy features prominently in U.S.–China strategic trade negotiations, much like rare earth elements, reflecting its growing importance beyond the realm of agriculture. It now serves as a bargaining chip in the broader context of economic and diplomatic relations between the two powers.

In 2025, every diplomatic move between the U.S. and China echoed strongly across the Chicago Board of Trade screens. Developments in September and October 2025 once again highlighted the fragility of this balance. Following the October 30 talks, China announced its commitment to purchase around 12 million tons of U.S.-origin soybeans for the 2025/26 season, with annual purchases of 25 million tons pledged for the following three years. Yet, markets remain cautious about how much of these volumes will translate into actual shipments, as South American supplies remain competitive alternatives and the U.S. faces timing disadvantages.

These political developments have accelerated China’s strategy of diversifying its supply sources, giving the world’s largest soybean importer greater flexibility in choosing origins. As a result, the latest trade arrangement between the two countries does not fully compensate for the large-volume contracts of previous years.

For the 2025 season, U.S. soybean production is projected at around 117 million tons due to a reduction in planted acreage. In contrast, the country’s crushing capacity continues to expand.

Driven by biodiesel investments and government incentives, soybean oil has regained its status as a strategic priority within the domestic market. This shift marks a transition from an export-oriented model toward a balance increasingly based on internal consumption. The U.S. is now selling fewer beans but consuming more oil. This structural transformation is turning the country into a more closed-loop player within the global supply chain prompting China to rely more heavily on South American sources for its imports.

Success in today’s soybean market depends less on predicting weather patterns or basic supply-demand trends, and more on interpreting the flow of policy developments ahead of time. Indeed, in global soybean trade, the confidence index has become as influential as price itself.

EUDR AND A NEW ERA IN THE SOYBEAN SUPPLY CHAIN

The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), set to take effect at the end of 2025, will require all soy products exported to the EU to come from deforestation-free supply chains. Under the regulation, exporters must upload GPS-based coordinates of their production areas and provide verified documentation proving that no deforestation has occurred.

The regulation’s core goal is clear: to prevent deforestation on a global scale. However, its scope and timing have sparked debate even within Europe. Industry representatives argue that, in its current form, the policy could lead to short-term trade slowdowns, stock pressure, and rising costs.

Once EUDR is implemented, competitiveness in the global soybean market will be determined less by price or yield advantages and more by compliance speed, documentation quality, and traceability standards. Countries with established certification systems such as the United States, Canada, and Paraguay are expected to benefit, while small producers in northern South America will likely face significant compliance costs.

Each ton of soy destined for Europe will now carry two forms of value: its protein and oil content, and its carbon footprint and deforestation risk. By making this second measure visible, EUDR transforms soybean trade from a purely quality- and price-based system into one defined equally by politics and sustainability.

TURKEY AND THE SOYBEAN PROCESSING ECONOMY: EXPLORING THE CONCEPT THROUGH AVES

The European Union’s transition to deforestation-free supply chains is redefining not only producer countries but also processing economies. In this transformation, Turkey stands out with its soybean processing capacity and strategic geographic position, serving not only Europe but also the Middle Eastern and Asian markets with strong export potential.

Although Turkey is not a major soybean producer, it has become a regional hub for processing and re-export within the soy complex. The country’s soybean economy largely depends on an import-based processing model: according to USDA and TurkStat data, Turkey imports around 3.5 million tons of soybeans annually, while domestic production remains at roughly 200,000 tons.

This import-driven structure provides Turkey with a multi-origin sourcing advantage. The ability to procure soybeans from diverse suppliers such as Brazil, the United States, Ukraine, and Canada positions Turkey as a reliable processing and distribution center for both European and Middle Eastern and Asian markets.

Countries in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, driven by growing populations and rising livestock production, require high-quality, traceable, and sustainable protein sources. With its geographic proximity, logistical strengths, and advanced processing infrastructure, Turkey is well placed to serve these markets directly. The country’s role in soybean product exports to the Middle East and Africa continues to grow steadily.

One of the pioneers of this transformation, Aves, has become a key regional player in the soybean processing industry. With a total annual production capacity of around 1.5 million tons, the company operates one of the largest integrated production facilities not only in Turkey but also in the wider region. Thanks to its strategic location in Mersin province, Aves effectively utilizes export routes serving Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

With the launch of its Soy Protein Concentrate (SPC) line in 2025, Aves has expanded beyond oil and meal to produce high-protein, low–carbon footprint, and fully traceable products. These innovations directly address the rising demands of the feed and food industries. The use of SPC in aquaculture, in particular, enhances Turkey’s export potential in the fish farming sector. The company’s products offer competitive advantages in sustainability, traceability, and nutritional value.

At Aves, sustainability is a core part of our business both economically and environmentally. To reduce our country’s import dependency and strengthen domestic production, we aim for sustainable growth through advanced technologies in oilseed, meal, and SPC manufacturing.

In conclusion, Turkey’s soybean processing economy plays an increasingly strategic role in global supply chains through its growing export potential. This multifaceted export structure positions Turkey not only as a processor but also as a regional transformer and distribution hub.

CONCLUSION: THE BALANCE OF THE FUTURE – PROTEIN, ENERGY, AND SUSTAINABILITY

The 2025/26 season marks a turning point where soybeans have evolved from a traditional agricultural crop into a global strategic instrument. Although production has reached record levels, today’s market assigns value not to quantity but to trust, sustainability, and traceability.

The implementation of the EUDR, the strategic restructuring of U.S.–China trade relations, and logistical pressures in South America define the soybean complex along three key axes: protein, energy, and sustainability.

Protein shapes the market through rising food security needs driven by population growth; energy through the global biofuel transformation; and sustainability through regulatory frameworks and certification costs.

In this new era, Turkey, despite not being a major producer, emerges as one of the most reliable links in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia’s secure supply chain, thanks to its strong crushing capacity, multi-origin sourcing model, and sustainable processing infrastructure.

Success in the global soybean market now depends not merely on production, but on certified, traceable production. In this equation, Turkey stands in the right position for the future of the soybean economy, not as a producer, but as a processor and transformer.