China’s soybean imports fell by 9% year-on-year in November to 7.15 million tons due to reduced shipments from Brazil. Despite the decline, total imports for 2023 are on track to set a new record amid expectations of a trade war with the U.S.

China imported 7.15 million metric tons of soybeans in November, marking a 9% decrease compared to the 7.92 million tons imported in the same month last year, according to Reuters calculations of customs data. Analysts had expected November imports to range between 7.5 and 8.5 million tons.

The unexpected drop was attributed to a reduction in arrivals of old-crop Brazilian soybeans, according to Wan Chengzhi, an analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures. The shift to larger-than-usual U.S. shipments in recent months, driven by concerns over potential U.S.-China trade tensions, played a role in the monthly figures.

Wan noted that most U.S. soybeans purchased in October had already arrived by November. “Considering the shipping time, U.S. soybeans purchased in October will arrive in China around December, so import volume in December will be higher than in November,” he said.

Despite the November dip, cumulative imports from January to November rose 9.4% year-on-year to 97.09 million tons, putting China on pace to break its previous annual record of 100.31 million tons set in 2020.

Lower soybean prices and rising imports have pressured soymeal futures and shrunk crush margins in key processing hubs like Rizhao. As of November, processors faced losses of approximately 274 yuan ($37.80) per ton.