The highly anticipated announcement of the 2026 grain purchase prices by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has reshuffled the deck across a massive supply chain spanning from agriculture to industry. While expectations of record-breaking yields nationwide have sparked excitement in the market, TMO’s floor prices and 45-day payment terms have thrown agricultural stakeholders into a dynamic debate. The diverse opinions surfacing immediately after the intervention prices were declared reveal that this is no longer just a matter of agricultural policy, but a search for macroeconomic balance. Following a wave of mixed reactions, statements from TMO clarified the real-world metrics the government relied on to shape this price policy.

According to the 2026 purchase prices announced by TMO, the floor price has been set at 16,500 TRY per ton for durum and bread wheat, and 12,750 TRY per ton for barley. Compared to 2025 prices, these figures represent a 22.2% increase for wheat and a 15.9% increase for barley. The announcement also detailed an incentive package from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry supporting the new production model. Along with basic support, planned production support, and certified seed usage support, producers are projected to receive a total of 980 TRY per decare on top of the purchase price. According to official statements based on Turkey’s average yield of 325 kg, these incentives translate to roughly 3,014 TRY per ton. Under the Ministry’s mathematical modeling, when premiums and incentives are factored in, the net amount entering the producer’s pocket reaches 19,514 TRY/ton for wheat and 15,764 TRY/ton for barley.

TWO DISTINCT VOICES FROM THE FIELD

Şemsi Bayraktar

As prices and payment terms became clear, industry representatives began sharing their views in the media. Şemsi Bayraktar, President of the Union of Turkish Chambers of Agriculture (TZOB), drew a clear line of opposition, emphasizing that the announced increase rates fell below April’s 32.37% annual inflation. While TZOB demanded an additional premium of 3 TRY per kilogram to protect farmers crushed under high input costs, it also argued that making farmers whose debts knock on the door at harvest time wait 45 days to receive their money was “unacceptable.”

Mutlu Doğru

On the other hand, Mutlu Doğru, President of the Adana Farmers’ Union, weighed the pros and cons of the decision. Stating that the price hike was generally positive for the producer and grounded in rationale, Doğru noted, “If an excessively high price detached from market realities and the current conjuncture had been announced, there would have been massive backlogs at TMO gates.” He found it positive that the price structure maintained a balance that wouldn’t paralyze the market. However, placing a caveat on the financing and support model, Doğru identified the lack of a direct price difference support (premium) of at least around 1 TRY as a significant shortcoming. Reminding that a 45-day maturity in a high-interest environment would erode the money by 6% in real terms, effectively dragging the price down to 15,500 TRY, Doğru argued that to ease the market, it should have been announced that payments would be made in cash.

Yaşar Serpi

Yaşar Serpi, Chairman of the National Grain Council (UHK), was the voice expressing full approval of the price list and the supplementary data. Serpi stated that the prices struck a balance that met the expectations of both farmers and the market. He noted that in an environment where global raw material prices remain stable, this policy both preserves the farmer’s production motivation and shields the end consumer against food inflation. Serpi emphasized that TMO’s commitment to purchasing every single product is the greatest assurance given to the producer.

TMO’S RESPONSE: “COST, MATURITY, AND QUALITY”

TMO General Manager Ahmet Güldal addressed the public regarding the highly anticipated and widely discussed prices. Speaking on a live TV broadcast, Güldal defended TMO’s corporate strategy with hard data. Responding to the cost breakdowns and price criticisms coming from farmers’ unions, Güldal pointed out that calculating costs is not just about slapping a percentage onto last year’s price.

Güldal stated: “Our yield expectation for the 2026 season is exceptionally high; we anticipate 22.7 million tons of wheat and 9 million tons of barley. This is one of the highest figures ever seen in history. We have experienced the best rainfall regime of the last 38 years. Thanks to this, irrigation costs, the largest expense for our producers, were minimized. We aren’t observing yields under 400 kilograms anywhere in the field. In fact, just yesterday, we had producers delivering 800 kilograms of product. High yield directly drives down costs.”

Bringing an unconventional clarity to the “45-day maturity” criticisms that most concern producers, Güldal gave a concrete timeframe. Güldal said, “The phrase ‘45 days’ does not mean payments will only be made 45 days later. Our producers should not worry. We will buy 10 to 13 million tons of product, which carries a massive financial cost. To ensure we don’t fall short as an institution, we set this timeframe cautiously. However, payments will begin 3 weeks (21 days) after harvest; we will certainly not wait for 45 days.”

THE FORMER PREMIUM SCHEME HAS BEEN RETIRED

The TMO General Manager also clarified the rising demands for premiums. “The former premium system has been completely phased out with the transition to planned production. Now, we have basic support, planned support, and certified seed support. The practice of paying these incentives the following year continues, but it would be incorrect to say the farmer is left alone with just 16,500 TRY,” he said.

Attributing the equalization of bread and durum wheat prices to a strategy for quality preservation, Güldal stated, “We produce the highest quality durum wheat in the Southeast. The price gap in the past led to the production of low-quality durum wheat in Central Anatolia. With this decision, we are directing production to its ecologically correct region.”

CONCLUSION: SEEKING BALANCE IN A YEAR OF ABUNDANCE

TMO’s 2026 grain policy acts as a delicate scale, balancing the need to keep farmers motivated in the fields with the imperative to control food inflation by curbing raw material costs for the processing industry. Stating that they announced the selling prices (18,500 TRY) well in advance alongside the purchase price so the industry can see the road ahead, Güldal noted they are fully prepared with a massive storage capacity exceeding 20 million tons. Addressing producers against those who might want to drive down prices in the free market during the harvest period, Güldal’s call, “Please do not supply your products to the market below these prices. TMO has the financial power to buy it all”, underscored the benchmark nature of the prices announced by TMO.