Preliminary forecasts from FAO‑AMIS indicate a near‑3% decline in global wheat production in 2026, reflecting softer prices and a return to trend yields after last year’s highs. Despite this reduction, output is expected to remain above the five‑year average.

Global wheat production is projected to decline slightly in 2026, with FAO‑AMIS estimating a near‑3% drop to 810 million tons, though output remains above the five‑year average. Softer crop prices and a return to trend yields after last year’s highs are the primary drivers of this moderate decrease.

Regionally, the European Union sees reduced winter wheat sowings due to lower prices, though generally favorable weather should keep yields above average. The UK expects a modest expansion in wheat area, while Russia continues to scale back plantings as oilseed returns remain attractive. Ukraine’s production is projected to remain stable but still below pre‑conflict levels. In North America, US plantings are down amid softer prices, yet near‑average yields help sustain output, while Canada sees slight area gains.

In Asia, wheat crops in India and Pakistan are on track for near‑record production, supported by government incentives and ample irrigation, and China’s crop conditions appear favorable. In Türkiye, expanded plantings and recovery in yields after last year’s adverse weather are expected to support a modest increase.