Turkey’s chicken meat production is projected to hit a record in 2025, driven by strong domestic demand and the expected end of export quotas. While exports are forecast to rebound, challenges like high feed prices and regional trade restrictions persist.

In its latest Poultry and Products Annual report, released on September 4, 2024, the USDA forecasts a record-breaking year for Türkiye’s chicken meat production in 2025. After a slower-than-usual growth in 2024, production is expected to rebound, driven by strong domestic consumption and the anticipated end of the government’s export quota in December 2024. Chicken continues to be a more affordable option compared to beef, fueling steady demand across the country.

With exports projected to partially recover in 2025, Iraq is expected to remain Türkiye’s top export market. The report, prepared by Sinem Duyum, highlights the factors influencing both domestic consumption and international trade, offering a comprehensive outlook for the year ahead.

PRODUCTION TO HIT RECORD 2.6 MMT 

According to the USDA report, Turkey’s chicken meat production is forecast to increase by 200,000 MT, or 8%, in 2025, reaching a record 2.6 million metric tons (MMT). This rise matches the sector’s typical annual growth of 8-10%, driven by stable domestic and export demand.

Figure 1. Turkish Chicken Meat Production from 2023 to 2024, Monthly Comparison
Source: Turkish Red Meat Producers Association and Turkish Poultry Industrialist Associations, 2024

The report revises the 2024 production estimate to 2.4 MMT, a modest 3% increase from 2023, attributed to the government’s export quota from June to December, aimed at stabilizing retail chicken prices. The slowdown is already evident in monthly figures, as the report reveals.

Higher feed prices, up 30% year-on-year, are a key challenge, accounting for 70% of production costs. Labor issues, including a recent strike at a major broiler company, have had minimal impact on output.

Turkey’s poultry industry is heavily reliant on imported feed ingredients like soymeal and corn. Despite efforts to boost local soybean production, domestic supply remains insufficient. The Inward Processing Regime (IPR), which allows duty-free feed imports for export production, does little to reduce this dependency.

The sector also relies on imported breeding materials, although this has lessened with the establishment of a local facility. Imports of hatching eggs fell 9% in 2023, while imports from the U.S. dropped 10% due to avian influenza outbreaks.

CONSUMPTION PROJECTED TO REACH 2.2 MMT

As chicken meat production is set to break records in 2025, consumption is also expected to reach an all-time high of nearly 2.2 million metric tons (MMT), according to the USDA report. This forecast is based on the assumption that improving economic conditions will lead to increased chicken consumption, along with a boost from the millions of tourists visiting Turkey each year.

Figure 2. Türkiye Meat Consumption Per Capita (in Kilograms)
Source: Turkish Red Meat Producers Association and Turkish Poultry Industrialist Associations, 2024

For 2024, the USDA revised its chicken meat consumption estimate to 2.0 MMT, citing strong demand despite retail prices doubling over the past year. As the report highlights, chicken remains significantly more affordable than ground beef, costing four times less, making it a preferred choice for many consumers. The timing of the Sacrifice holiday, coinciding with the start of the outdoor barbeque season in June, also contributed to a surge in consumption.

In an effort to stabilize chicken prices, the Ministry of Trade imposed an export quota in May. Since then, retail chicken prices have stabilized at 100 TL/kg ($2.94/kg), though inflationary pressures are expected to prevent further price declines.

Figure 3. Poultry Meat Prices at Domestic Markets, 2023-2024, Comparison
Source/ Kaynak: USDA

About 60% of the chicken consumed in Turkey is in the form of whole birds, while the remaining 40% is consumed as cuts, such as thighs, breasts, and wings.

A MAJOR TRANSSHIPMENT HUB FOR U.S. CHICKEN

Türkiye does not import chicken meat for domestic consumption, but its strategic location makes it a key transshipment hub for poultry products destined for Middle Eastern countries, as highlighted in the USDA report. These transshipments are not included in Türkiye’s production, supply, and distribution (PSD) balance sheet.

Most of the U.S. chicken transshipped through Türkiye is sent to Iraq (80%) and Syria (20%). In 2023, over 11,000 metric tons (MT) of U.S. chicken, valued at $8.7 million, were routed through Türkiye.

The report also points out that Türkiye restricts the transshipment of non-heat-treated poultry from countries affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). For U.S. exports, these restrictions are limited to the states impacted by HPAI. These regulations are subject to frequent changes, and exporters are advised to consult the FSIS Export Library for the latest updates on restricted areas.

Additionally, Türkiye employs high tariffs to discourage chicken imports and protect its domestic industry, with a 65% tariff on imported chicken meat and 121.5% on processed chicken products.

2025 OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES FOR CHICKEN MEAT EXPORTS

In 2025, Turkish chicken meat exports are forecast to reach 374,000 metric tons (MT), marking an 8% year-over-year growth, according to the USDA report. This projection aligns with increased domestic production and steady international demand, particularly from Iraq, which remains the top export destination, accounting for nearly half of Türkiye’s total exports.

However, the 2024 export estimate has been reduced by 22% to 347,000 MT, largely due to the government’s decision to impose an export quota from May to December to control rising domestic chicken prices. Initially, the quota was set at 10,000 MT per month, but after industry negotiations, the government raised it to 22,500 MT per month starting in August, with the condition that retail prices remain stable. Despite initial fears of losing market share in Iraq, industry insiders believe the risk has been mitigated due to Iraq’s large frozen stocks of Turkish poultry.

Figure 4. Türkiye’s Chicken Meat Exports, 2022-2024, First Six Months Comparison
Source/ Kaynak: Trade Data Monitor, LLC.

Other factors, including regional instability and avian influenza outbreaks, have also contributed to the reduction in export volumes in 2024. In 2023, total chicken exports amounted to 445,047 MT but saw a year-over-year decline due to trade restrictions from key markets like Iraq, Iran, and Japan, as well as economic uncertainties in Türkiye during the general elections.