The series of events triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to lengthen with one more chain every month. As you may recall, following the initial shock of the outbreak of the war, people started to discuss that the conflicts would increase grain and food prices in a shy tone, being aware of the dramatic humanitarian dimension of the war.

After it was understood that Kiev would not fall within a week, as some so-called experts claimed, and the sanction-against-natural gas sanction showdown between the Western world and Russia took the event to a new level. Europe, which sips like poison being dependent on Russia for energy after closing its nuclear facilities one by one, is busy implementing the measures it tries to spread over time.

On the other hand, Russia, the world’s number one fertilizer exporter, cannot export its products abroad as it wishes. The fact that the fertilizer does not reach the farmer’s hands is one of the most important examples of the chain events mentioned above. The lack or scarcity of fertilizer naturally reduces the yield in production. Food prices, which have already increased in recent years, continue to increase exponentially due to both the decrease in yield and the contraction in supply due to the withdrawal of some farmers from production. Food prices, which have severely increased since the pandemic, had already had difficulties with giant companies that announced that they would cut production due to the energy crisis.

International credit rating agency Standard & Poors published a report last week that the increase in fertilizer prices poses a food safety risk. And FAO stated that the developments will not only cause an increase in the price of fertilizers, but that limited access to fertilizer will also put upwards pressure on the prices. Prioritizing domestic consumption, China introduced a quota for fertilizer exports. On top of all this, Czech Minister of Agriculture, Zdenek Nekula, declared that there is not enough fertilizer left in Europe, revealing the severity of the situation.

The crisis in fertilizers stands out as a Europe-centered problem to a large extent. In Europe, governments may partially or fully subsidize natural gas. However, the transferred resources will result in a price increase in the market again. Another possibility is to obtain fertilizer from alternative geographies such as the Middle East, America and Asia. However, considering the logistics aspect of the matter, this solution, too, would inevitably increase the costs. Consequently, food prices seem to continue to increase in the short term.