Southeastern Anatolia’s grain exports reached $871.3 million in the first quarter, with value decline remaining limited despite a drop in volumes. While the African market posted growth, a contraction was observed in the Middle East. Rising costs and geopolitical developments point to a period ahead where price-driven competition will become increasingly decisive.
Maintaining its leadership with a 31.2% share in Southeastern Anatolia’s total exports, the cereals, pulses, oilseeds and products sector recorded 871.3 million dollars in exports in the first quarter of the year. Compared to the same period last year, export volume of the sector in the region declined by 6.8%, while the decrease in value terms remained limited at 2.9%. Over the three-month period, approximately 285.8 thousand tons of pasta, 191.8 thousand tons of wheat flour, and 121 thousand tons of sunflower oil were exported. Sunflower oil, the highest revenue-generating product, saw exports increase by 31.1% to 195.6 million dollars, while pasta, ranking second, rose by 9.4% to 156.2 million dollars. In this period, when the average export unit prices increased by 4.2%, exports to the Middle East declined by 20.8% to 340.7 million dollars, while the African market, with 317.2 million dollars in exports, recorded a 20.9% increase.
WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD WHERE BUYERS WILL BE MORE CAUTIOUS AND PRICE-FOCUSED
Commenting that energy and logistics balances are being redefined in light of developments in the Middle East, and that rising risks in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainties regarding energy supply security are strengthening Türkiye’s potential as a logistics hub, Celal Kadooğlu, President of the Southeastern Anatolia Cereals, Pulses, Oilseeds and Products Exporters’ Association, said the following:
“Iraq’s strategy of using the Türkiye route more actively in its oil exports, and the acceleration of projects such as the Development Road, offer a strategic opportunity that could turn our country into not only a transit country but also one of the centers of regional trade and energy flow. Of course, for geopolitical advantages not to remain limited to short-term gains and to transform into long-term competitiveness, trade infrastructure, financing and collection processes, and operational flows at border gates must be equally strong and predictable.
Celal Kadooğlu, President of the Southeastern Anatolia Cereals, Pulses, Oilseeds and Products Exporters’ Association
We expect that war-related factors putting pressure on global agricultural markets from the exporters’ perspective will continue for some time. In line with strong production expectations in the Black Sea basin, we are entering a period where price-oriented competition will further intensify. This picture will be even more decisive, especially for staple products such as wheat flour, pasta, and sunflower oil. On the other hand, the increase in energy, fertilizer, and logistics costs is reflected in production costs, directly affecting not only export prices but also contract structures, risk appetite, and market preferences. Therefore, this period should be evaluated not merely as a geopolitical disruption, but as a multi-layered transformation process spanning pricing behavior, supply chains, competitive balances, and production planning.”
“IN SOME MARKETS WE WILL FACE MORE INTENSE COMPETITION”
Kadooğlu also noted that changes in logistics and routing in regional trade will increase competitive pressure, saying: “The reopening of the border gate between Iraq and Syria, which has been closed for around 14 years, and the activation of alternative transit routes carry the potential to increase the overall size of regional trade, while also shifting Türkiye’s existing logistics advantage onto a more competitive ground. A structure where trade flows through Türkiye out of necessity may evolve into a multi-centered system with alternative corridors. The activation of new routes offering cost and time advantages is likely to lead Turkish exporters to face more intense competition in some markets. Indeed, not only logistics routes but also the number and diversity of suppliers accessing the same markets are increasing; this makes price sensitivity even more decisive, particularly in African and Middle Eastern markets. Therefore, our main issue will be maintaining our share and directional influence within regional trade. For this reason, it is critical that our customs gates opening to the Middle East operate at full capacity without interruption, that existing routes are strengthened to preserve speed and cost advantages, and that policies supporting Türkiye’s position as a ‘natural supplier’ are maintained.”