The International Grains Council has updated its global outlook, projecting a contraction in animal feed usage while record food and industrial uptake push total grain consumption to 2,446 million tonnes. Despite a seven million tonne upward revision to 2026/27 global production, expanding overall demand will force end-season carryover stocks to tighten further.
According to London-based International Grains Council’s latest market report, global total grains production for the 2026/27 season has been upgraded by 7 million tonnes month-on-month to 2,427 million tonnes, primarily driven by improved maize and barley outturns in key growing regions. However, a major structural shift is taking place across global consumption dynamics: while animal feed utilization is projected to contract, expanding human food and industrial requirements are completely offsetting this drop, pushing aggregate global consumption to an all-time peak of 2,446 million tonnes. Consequently, despite higher carry-in supplies and upgraded output, sustained demand pressure will tighten global closing carryover stocks further to 619 million tonnes.
World grains trade forecasts experienced a minor downward adjustment of 1 million tonnes to 450 million tonnes (Jul/Jun), tied primarily to reduced wheat export volumes and shifting logistics, despite minor gains in maize trade. In the oilseeds sector, a record outturn in the United States is lifting world soyabean production to a peak of 439 million tonnes, representing a 1.9% year-on-year increase. Despite this expanded production outlook, robust processing activity will lift global crushing demand by 2.6%, causing carryover reserves among major exporting nations to fall steeply by 14% to 74 million tonnes. Meanwhile, world soyabean import demand remains firm at an all-time high of 190 million tonnes.
Reflecting a broader softening across major export quotations over the past month, the overall IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) dropped by 3.5%. The downturn was driven by significant price pressures in the coarse grains and wheat sectors, led by sharp declines in the maize (-6.8%) and wheat (-5.0%) sub-indices, alongside a 2.9% easing in soyabean values. Conversely, the rice sub-index bucked the general market trend by registering a 1.6% monthly gain.
