The grain market of 2024 was a journey through highs and lows, marked by shifting trade policies and unpredictable weather that tested the industry’s resilience. Amid literal and figurative storms, the sector demonstrated remarkable adaptability and strength. With expert insights and sharp analysis, ASAP Agri reflects on the defining moments and key trends that made 2024 an unforgettable year while uncovering the opportunities that lie ahead for the grain market in 2025.

Grain market rollercoaster: The highs and lows of 2024 prices

CBOT wheat prices hovered near 200 USD/MT by mid-December, marking a decline from 226 USD/MT at the start of the year and nearing levels last seen in September 2020. This decline mirrors the ample global supply and intense competition seen during the 2020/21 marketing year. Graph 1 illustrates a price trend comparable to the current situation, highlighting similar market dynamics. A brief price spike at the close of the 2023/24 marketing year — fueled by concerns over Black Sea crop volumes and reduced EU production — proved short-lived. Despite these fears, the global 2024/25 wheat harvest is estimated at record levels, further pressuring the market.

Corn prices, while less volatile than wheat, also saw significant fluctuations driven by weather and geopolitical factors. Early in the year, CBOT corn futures dropped to 157 USD/MT as global markets anticipated ample supplies from the U.S. and Brazil. Additionally, softer demand from key importers like China further pressured prices downward. A dramatic mid-year spike to 183 USD/MT followed drought stress in Argentina and Southern Europe, raising fears of lower yields. However, record-breaking production in Brazil and the U.S. overwhelmed earlier concerns, driving prices down to 145 USD/MT by August, the lowest level since 2020. Renewed volatility struck in the final quarter, as U.S. trade policy announcements pushed futures past 170 USD/MT by December.

CROWNING ACHIEVEMENTS: LEADERS OF 2024 GRAIN MARKET

Wheat

Russia solidified its position as the world’s leading wheat exporter in 2024, maintaining its dominance in the international market despite a significant decline in production. The 2024 wheat harvest still ranks as the fifth-largest in the country’s history, enabling Russia to continue its role as a major price driver on the global stage.

With competitive pricing, Russia has further reinforced its influence, reshaping the dynamics of global wheat trade. It remains the top supplier to critical regions, including the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, underscoring its pivotal role in meeting global wheat demand.

Corn

Brazil emerged as the clear victor in the 2024 corn market, solidifying its position as a global powerhouse. Benefiting from favorable weather conditions, strategic investments in cutting-edge agricultural technology, and expanded planting areas, Brazil achieved a record-breaking harvest.

Buyers across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East increasingly turned to Brazilian corn, drawn by its competitive pricing and consistent reliability. This shift underscored Brazil’s growing influence on the global stage, cementing its dominance and reshaping the market landscape for years to come.

GAME-СHANGERS: THE DEFINING EVENTS OF 2024

Ukraine reconnects: A strong return to global grain markets

The summer months of July, August, and September 2024 brought a resurgence of activity in Ukraine’s grain exports, thanks to the fully operational grain corridor. This enabled a significant increase in the flow of goods, providing much-needed relief to the market after months of uncertainty.

Internal logistics pressures eased significantly due to the smaller harvested volume and the immediate ability to export directly from major ports as the campaign began. The efficiency of this streamlined process played a crucial role in stabilizing logistics and ensuring timely shipments.

“As the corridor facilitated smoother operations, the correlation between Ukrainian grain prices and those on Euronext began to strengthen,” notes Olivier Bouillet, Head of Sales at KMR Agro and Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri. “This growing alignment signals increasing integration and transparency in market dynamics, providing traders with greater predictability and confidence.”

GOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONS IN BLACK SEA TRADE

Ukraine: Since early December 2024, the Ukrainian government has introduced a series of export policy changes aimed at streamlining procedures and improving transparency. Key measures include the mandatory registration of VAT payers and the establishment of minimum export prices, designed to prevent the undervaluation of goods in customs declarations.

While these policies changes aimed to bring greater stability and fairness to the market, Ukrainian exporters faced substantial challenges in navigating the regulatory environment. “This season, Ukrainian suppliers faced substantial challenges in exporting commodities due to regular checks of their cargo documents by the authorities. These checks caused a cascade of disputes: delays in shipments, vessel detentions, and issues surrounding the recovery of war risk insurance by shipowners,” says Ivan Kasynyuk, partner at AGA Partners. Adding to these hurdles, fraudulent phytosanitary certificates and prolonged document inspections by Turkish authorities created further complications. “These issues triggered disputes over payments under contracts and vessel demurrage,” Kasynyuk notes, highlighting the multifaceted difficulties confronting Ukrainian traders.

Russia: In a closed-door meeting on October 11, 2024, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture instructed exporters to set a minimum wheat price of 250 USD/MT FOB at international tenders. The government also excluded international traders from the grain trade process, prioritizing direct exports to 13 designated countries, including Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, and India. Meanwhile, the EU imposed prohibitive tariffs on Russian and Belarusian cereals and oilseeds starting July 1, 2024, with rates set at 95 EUT/MT (102.76 USD/MT) for grains, further restricting Russian trade.

TRADE POLICY SHIFTS IN TURKEY AND EGYPT

Turkey: In June, Turkey temporarily banned wheat imports to stabilize domestic markets. The ban was partially lifted in October, allowing imports under strict quotas managed by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO). Additionally, Turkey reduced import duties on corn from 130% to 5% for up to 1 MMT of imports between October and December, supporting its animal feed industry and stimulating trade, particularly with Ukraine.

Egypt: A major shift occurred in Egypt’s wheat procurement system, with the government replacing its traditional tender-based system managed by GASC. The new agency, Mostakbal Misr for Sustainable Development, introduced a hybrid approach, combining direct purchase agreements with tenders to streamline procurement processes.

From droughts to downpours: Climate story of 2024

The Americas saw favorable weather conditions, with the U.S. and Brazil achieving record-breaking corn harvests. In contrast, Argentina and Southern Europe grappled with drought and heat stress, significantly reducing corn yields. These climatic disparities underscored agriculture’s ongoing vulnerability to global weather patterns.

EU and Ukraine: A resilient partnership

Ukraine reaffirmed its role as a critical supplier to the EU. With Southern Europe’s production shortfall, the EU relied heavily on Ukrainian and Brazilian corn to fill the gap. Despite rising logistical costs and competition from Brazil, Ukraine remained the EU’s largest corn supplier, highlighting the resilience of this trade relationship.

China’s switching to Brazilian corn

China balanced its record domestic production of 293 MMT with substantial imports, sourcing 64% of its imported corn from Brazil in 2023/24 MY. Rising Brazilian prices, however, spurred forecasts of increased U.S. corn imports for 2024/25. China also diversified its suppliers, with Argentina entering the market in July as part of Beijing’s strategy to reduce reliance on U.S. imports amidst trade tensions. These moves illustrated China’s focus on bolstering food security while navigating global market fluctuations.

THE BIOFUEL BOOM: A LIFELINE FOR CORN MARKETS 

Globally, the biofuel industry provided critical support to corn markets amidst fluctuating feed demand. Ethanol production surged in Brazil and the U.S., aligning with global efforts to transition toward renewable energy. This sustained demand for corn highlighted the synergy between agriculture and energy markets. 

India: India’s ambitious ethanol program was a game-changer, transforming the country from a net corn exporter to an importer. By ramping up corn-based ethanol production, India opened new opportunities for global suppliers, particularly Brazil and the U.S. This shift underscored the growing role of renewable energy in shaping agricultural markets.

WHAT LIES AHEAD FORGRAIN MARKET IN 2025

Further, ASAP Agri explores the key factors to watch, offering insights into the trends and challenges that will define the year ahead.

1. Russian grain export quota 

In late November 2024, the Russian customs sub-commission announced a wheat export quota of 11 MMT for the period between February 15 and June 30, 2025. This is significantly lower than the 29 MMT quota for all grains during the same period last year.

On one hand, the reduced quota signals a much tighter supply of wheat from Russia in the second half of the current season, which appears bullish for prices. However, there is a possibility that Russian exporters may attempt to maximize wheat sales before the restrictions take effect, potentially exerting additional downward pressure on prices in the coming months.

2. Trump’s tariff plans 

In 2025, President Donald Trump’s proposed trade policies are set to have a profound impact on global markets. Among the most significant measures are a planned 60% tariff on Chinese imports, along with similar actions targeting Canada and Mexico. These sweeping tariffs have already sparked widespread concern, as they are expected to trigger retaliatory measures, disrupt export flows, and inject new uncertainties into international trade. Soybeans and corn are likely to be among the most affected commodities, heightening the stakes for agricultural markets worldwide.

3. Growing competition from Southern Hemisphere

The wheat market is currently being shaped by the supply outlook from Australia and Argentina, both of which are in the midst of promising harvest seasons. Production in both countries is expected to exceed last year’s levels, driving higher export volumes and increasing competition in global markets, particularly for key buyers in Asia.

According to the December WASDE report, Australian wheat exports for the 2024/25 marketing year are forecasted at 25 MMT, up 5.1 MMT from the previous year. Argentina’s wheat exports are projected at 11.5 MMT, an increase of 3.3 MMT. These larger supplies are poised to heighten competition, challenging other major exporters.

In South America, the corn crop for the 2024/25 marketing year is shaping up to be strong, despite initial concerns over delayed planting in Brazil. The December WASDE report maintained its forecasts, with Brazil’s corn production estimated at 127 MMT and Argentina’s at 51 MMT, both surpassing last year’s figures.

Together, these two countries are projected to supply 84 MMT of corn to the global market, accounting for more than 40% of the global export forecast for 2024/25. This marks a significant advantage over the U.S., which is expected to hold a 33% share of global corn exports. The robust output from South America underscores its growing dominance in the global corn market, further intensifying competition among exporters.

4. Global climate risks

Russia: The most concerning situation is unfolding in Russia, where the state weather forecasting agency reports that an extraordinarily high 37% of winter crops for the 2025 harvest are in poor condition or have failed to sprout. Only 31% of crops are rated in good condition, a sharp decline from 74% last year. However, Sovecon has cautioned against considering this situation catastrophic, noting that many plants sprout later due to climate change. Winter crops still have a chance to recover if severe weather conditions are avoided.

Ukraine: Prolonged drought during the autumn sowing season significantly delayed germination and early growth of winter crops, especially wheat. Many seedlings entered dormancy prematurely, failing to reach the critical tillering stage necessary for strong winter survival. This leaves crops highly vulnerable to winter stresses, including freezing temperatures and insufficient snow cover.

Despite challenges from unfavorable weather during the sowing season, wheat acreage in Ukraine is expected to rise. “The outlook for the upcoming year suggests an increase in wheat acreage in Ukraine, reflecting growing confidence among operators,” says Olivier Bouillet, Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri. “Forward contracts for the 2025 harvest are already available at approximately 195 USD/MT CPT for 11.5% protein wheat, compared to last year when forward contracts for the 2024 harvest only appeared in March 2024 at 170 USD/MT. This earlier availability and higher pricing highlight a notable sense of optimism for the future of operations in the wheat market.”

Europe: According to the November MARS report, most parts of Europe experienced average to above-average temperatures and drier-than-usual conditions, which accelerated winter planting campaigns. These conditions also supported the emergence and early development of newly planted crops. However, unfavorable weather persisted in large areas of Spain, Italy, Romania, and Bulgaria, posing challenges to crop development.

US: In the U.S., winter wheat has entered dormancy in better condition compared to last year. USDA data as of November 24 shows that 55% of the crop is rated in good to excellent condition, up from 50% last year. Favorable November rains improved soil moisture levels, providing a boost to crop health as winter approaches.

La Niña Outlook: As of December 11, 2024, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports a greater than 50% probability of La Niña conditions developing in the next three months, down from the 71% forecasted two months ago. The event is expected to be weak and short-lived. La Niña is typically associated with reduced rainfall in South America, which could exacerbate drought conditions, particularly in Argentina and southern Brazil.

South America:

 Argentina: Corn production for the 2024/25 marketing year is now estimated at 50–51 MMT, slightly below earlier forecasts of 51–52 MMT. Insufficient soil moisture in the Pampas region has reduced planted corn acreage, with some areas shifting to soybean cultivation. If La Niña intensifies, its typically drier conditions could further threaten yields in Argentina’s grain belt.

 Brazil: Weather conditions in Brazil are currently more favorable. Adequate rainfall has supported the planting of the first corn crop, following delays caused by drought in September and October. Stabilized weather patterns in November have allowed planting to progress smoothly, reducing risks. Conab’s November report projects total corn production for 2024/25 at 119.8 MMT, while the December WASDE forecast stands at 127 MMT, driven by improved yield expectations.

5. Rising competition for Ukrainian corn in European markets

Europe’s reliance on Ukrainian corn is expected to remain significant, particularly as Southern Europe continues to grapple with the long-term impacts of climate change, including persistent drought and heat stress. These challenges are reducing domestic production and further increasing the region’s dependence on imports.

However, signs of growing competition for Ukrainian corn are becoming evident, with rival origins gaining ground. This trend could intensify if Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies disrupt global trade dynamics. “Spain is out here snubbing Ukrainian corn, and instead, they’re all over U.S. supplies like never before. Import volumes from the U.S. are hitting levels we haven’t seen in at least six years. Why? Because it’s cheap and makes sense for them. Brazilian corn? Too pricey. Ukrainian corn? Quality concerns should be absent this year, as our quality is the best in the Black Sea region, but the price is pushing us out of the Spanish game. So, it’s U.S. corn that’s stealing the show with Spanish buyers right now,” says Artem Rozhkov, Co-Founder of Atria Brokers and ASAP Agri.

6. China’s subdued demand for corn

Current demand for corn from China this season is extremely weak. In its December report, the USDA further reduced Chinese demand by an additional 2 MMT, lowering the import forecast to just 14 MMT in 2024/25. Poor demand is attributed to several factors, including large domestic stocks, high production levels, and weak demand from the local livestock industry. Additionally, imports to duty-free bonded areas have been unofficially restricted, following government announcements in early April 2024 and reiterated in August.

“In early December, Ukraine sold one Panamax of corn to China, but a significant increase in Chinese demand seems unlikely at this stage,” says Christina Serebriakova, CEO at ASAP Agri & Broker at Atria Brokers. “This purchase was made by a buyer looking to use up their open import quota to avoid a reduction in next year’s allocation. Meanwhile, Ukrainian sellers are shifting their attention to Turkey, where market participants are eagerly awaiting the announcement of a new 1 MMT corn import quota at a 5% duty, which could open up fresh trade opportunities.”

7. Turkey’s сorn policy

Turkey’s temporary reduction in corn import duties in 2024 provided short-term relief to the domestic market, but long-term strategies remain crucial to ensuring food security and market stability. Future policy decisions, particularly in relation to trade with Ukraine, are expected to have a significant impact on regional supply chains and the broader grain trade.

As of early December 2024, Turkey’s current 1 MMT corn import quota at a reduced 5% duty is nearly depleted, with only 34.2 KMT remaining. Given the country’s estimated total import requirement of 1.9 MMT for the 2024/25 marketing year, it is widely expected that the government will announce a new 1 MMT import quota to address the shortfall and support the domestic market.

8. Ethanol’s rising role in corn demand

India’s growing demand for corn imports opens a promising market for global exporters, while the continued push for renewable energy will drive robust demand for ethanol. This trend is likely to provide a steady outlet for corn producers, supporting growth even in the face of fluctuating feed markets.

9. Geopolitical tensions

Geopolitical tensions involving major players such as China and Russia pose significant risks to global trade flows. Trade disputes, sanctions, and escalating conflicts have the potential to reshape export dynamics, creating uncertainty for both exporters and importers. For Ukraine, the ongoing conflict remains a critical factor that will influence its ability to sustain production and exports in the coming year.

Despite these challenges, there are signs of stabilization. “We expect a decrease in the number of disputes in light of several factors,” says Ivan Kasynyuk. “First, market players have adjusted to geopolitical turbulences, making trade more predictable. Second, the return of multinational companies to the Ukrainian market is stabilizing the situation, limiting the volume of disputes.” However, Kasynyuk notes that “classical disputes caused by market volatility are likely to persist,” underscoring the complex and evolving nature of global trade amidst geopolitical uncertainty.

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