The US Department of Agriculture issued its first world estimates for the 2022/23 crop season on 12th May. According to USDA’s Grain: World Markets and Trade report, global wheat production is likely to decline for the first time in four years. Global ending stocks are expected to fall from 279.7 million tons in 2021/22 to 267 million tons in 2022/23.
The USDA forecast 2022/23 total global wheat output at 775 million tons, the first decline since the 2018/19 season and down 4 million tons from the previous year. Reduced production in Ukraine, Australia, and Morocco is only partly offset by increases in Canada, Russia, and the United States.
The largest cut to production is in Ukraine, which is projected to have a crop one-third smaller than the prior year with the reduced harvested area and lower yields due to the ongoing war with Russia. Production in Ukraine is forecast at 21.5 million tons, 11.5 million tons lower than 2021/22. And production in Russia is estimated at 80 million tons, up slightly from 75.2 million tons this season.
Australia is expected to have a smaller crop, down from last year’s record, on reduced harvested area and yields. Production in Morocco is forecast at the lowest since 2007/08 because of severe drought conditions. The crop in India is down as heatwaves have damaged yields in prominent northern growing states. European Union production is forecast modestly lower from the previous year at 136.5 million tons. China, the second-largest global producer, is also expecting a slightly smaller harvest (135 mt).