USDA’s August report forecasts record global corn supplies alongside tightening wheat stocks, the lowest in a decade. Oilseed production faces climate pressures in Europe and Turkey, while trade flows shift regionally.
According to the latest WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the 2025/26 global coarse grain outlook points to record corn production, driven by strong output in the United States, Ukraine, and Canada, alongside slightly lower supplies in the EU and Serbia due to extreme heat and dryness. Total global coarse grain production is forecast 24.9 million tons higher than last month at 1.572 billion, with corn as the primary contributor. Increased harvested area and yields in the United States are complemented by higher yields in Canada and expanded area in Ukraine. Conversely, European production is constrained by July heat stress and reduced area in southeastern regions.
RECORD U.S. CORN CROP DRIVES GLOBAL TRADE AND STOCKS
Global corn trade is expected to rise, with higher exports from the United States and Ukraine offset by declines in Serbia and the EU. Imports are adjusted upward for Mexico, the EU, Egypt, Colombia, and Turkey, reflecting regional demand patterns. Global corn ending stocks are projected at 282.6 million tons, up 10.4 million from last month, supported mainly by the U.S. record crop.
WHEAT STOCKS FALL TO DECADE LOW AS GLOBAL SUPPLY TIGHTENS
The wheat outlook signals tightening global balances. Total supplies fall due to lower production in China, Brazil, and Argentina, partially offset by increased output in the EU, where favorable weather in Romania and Slovakia has improved yields. World trade is expected to expand slightly, led by U.S. exports, while global consumption is lowered marginally on reduced feed and residual use in China, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Projected global ending stocks are 260.1 million tons, the lowest since 2015/16, highlighting constrained availability in key importing regions.
OILSEED PRODUCTION FACES CLIMATE HEADWINDS
Oilseed production faces mixed developments. Global soybean supply is reduced slightly, with U.S. production lowered due to smaller harvested area, partially offset by higher yields. Sunflowerseed production is revised down by 1.2 million tons to 55.1 million, primarily reflecting hot, dry weather in the EU, Ukraine, Turkey, and Serbia. Lower global stocks are expected in Argentina, the EU, Iran, Vietnam, and the United States, reducing ending stocks to 124.9 million tons. Trade adjustments include higher exports from Argentina and Uruguay, and reduced imports for the EU, Iran, and Vietnam.
World Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds.
GLOBAL RICE SUPPLIES SHIFT AS CONSUMPTION HITS RECORD
Rice supplies show limited shifts. Global 2025/26 production is forecast slightly lower at 728.7 million tons, mainly on smaller beginning stocks for Nigeria, Burma, and Thailand. Consumption is projected at a record 542.0 million tons, with increases in Nigeria offsetting reductions elsewhere. Global ending stocks decline modestly to 186.7 million tons, driven by lower stocks in Nigeria, the Philippines, and Burma.
U.S. LIVESTOCK AND DAIRY PRODUCTION SHOW MIXED TRENDS
Livestock, poultry, and dairy forecasts reflect feed availability and regional adjustments. Broiler and turkey production for 2026 is raised in the United States on lower feed costs, while beef and pork production is lowered due to reduced slaughter and lighter dressed weights. Egg production is revised down for 2025 based on hatchery data, with steady growth expected in 2026. Milk production forecasts are increased, supported by higher cow inventories and output per cow. Dairy exports are adjusted upward for cheese, whey, and milk protein concentrates, reflecting global demand trends.
The USDA’s August WASDE report underscores a global feed grain landscape marked by record coarse grain production, historically low wheat stocks, and oilseed supply pressures in climate-sensitive regions. These developments are likely to influence trade flows, regional availability, and market dynamics for the 2025/26 season.