Prof. Dr. Tufan Eroldoğan
Faculty of Fisheries,
Cukurova University - Founder of Aquaspin Ltd.
Since the 1800s, global temperatures have risen by 1°C, and projections indicate a further increase of 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052. The anticipated warming of ocean and inland surface waters, along with rising sea levels and ice melting, is expected to adversely affect numerous fish species in the coming years (1). Due to global warming, some marine species are already shifting to higher latitudes, while others, such as those inhabiting the Arctic and freshwater environments, face extinction risks as they have no alternative habitats (2). From an aquaculture standpoint, the impact of climate change has garnered considerable attention, largely due to aquaculture's crucial role in maintaining global food security, nutrition, and livelihoods, as well as its significant contribution to international trade (3; 4). Currently, the aquaculture industry is highly dependent on climatic conditions, which makes it susceptible to the potential risks associated with climate change, potentially affecting its future ability to cultivate and produce fish.
The below table provides an overview of the climate risks on EU aquaculture, by production environment and classified as moderate, major and severe. Severe risks would need immediate adaptation actions. This assessment of climate risks by production environment is based on short- and long-term scenarios derived from several EU projects and other references. Furthermore, numerous reports have emerged showing that climate change effects on aquaculture may vary depending on geographical areas, economy, climate zones, production systems, and culture species.
As shown in the Table 1, management measure required in medium- and long-term in the case of moderate levels in all environmental conditions. In contrast, under severe conditions, significant management adjustments are urgently needed for coastal areas, lagoons and wetlands, affecting both marine and land-based environments. Rising temperatures in both marine and land-based environments can result in decreased oxygen levels and hypoxia in freshwater ponds, which poses an immediate risk to aquaculture production. These climate change-induced alterations in water temperature are linked to events of mass mortality. Often, multiple hazards may arise from climate projections, necessitating the prioritization of these risks based on their significance and urgency. Further details on these risks per production environment and system can be found in the working document entitle “Implementing the Strategic Guidelines on EU Aquaculture Climate-change Adaptation in the Aquaculture Sector1”.
What are governance of adaptation?
The effects of climate change on aquaculture producers are generally anticipated to vary based on the type of environment they operate in, such as freshwater, brackish, or marine settings as previously mentioned. Numerous study has indicated that small-scale farmers are likely to be more vulnerable to climate change risks due to higher production costs in farm management and insufficient support systems for recovery, unlike their large-scale counterparts. Consequently, climate change is often perceived as an involuntary risk that heightens socio-economic vulnerability and exacerbates stress, particularly concerning food supply and demand and the livelihoods of farmers.
In the past days, Soto and Garcia Sampaio (6) published a FAO book titled “the Aquaculture Adaptation Framework for Climate Change (Aqua-Adapt),” which serves as a crucial resource for countries and stakeholders to develop and implement strategies to enhance aquaculture resilience to climate change. They clearly noted that many nations have formulated their National Aquaculture Plans (NAPs), which facilitate the identification of medium- and long-term adaptation needs and the creation and execution of strategies and programs to address these needs. However, it is noteworthy that the primary focus, so far, often remains on agriculture and urban protection under climate change scenarios. There are various measures to tackle climate change adaptation in aquaculture, emphasizing the need to bolster capacity in specific areas. To establish a climate-resilient aquaculture sector, stakeholders must have fair access to essential resources such as funding, technology, and space; retain the ability to adjust their farming and marketing strategies; demonstrate strong collective action capabilities; and commit to ongoing learning to effectively identify and respond to the changing impacts of climate change.
A Guidance and a framework are therefore, necessary for countries and relevant stakeholders, including farmers, processors, markets, R&D institutions, and local communities, to identify and select adaptation options. The Aqua-Adapt framework proposed by Soto and Garcia Sampaio (6) outlines six steps for developing adaptation strategies for climate change in aquaculture.
Figure 1. Major climate change impact on aquaculture and coastal ecosystem (Adapted from 5)
1. Define the aquaculture adaptation unit: Identify the specific area and community (e.g., a single bay, a region) for the adaptation plan.
2. Evaluate and consider climatic projections and pathways: Gather and review climate projections (e.g., temperature, storms) for the area over relevant timeframes.
3. Perform or assess a risk and/or vulnerability assessment on the defined aquaculture adaptation unit: Identify the specific climate threats to the local aquaculture operations and communities.
4. Design an adaptation work plan: Choose the most feasible and effective adaptation measures, ensuring they don't cause negative side effects (maladaptation). Create a detailed plan with goals and assigned roles ie. risk-based spatial planning.
5. Implement the strategy following the work plan: Execute the plan with strong support through funding, training, policies, and coordination with other sectors like agriculture.
6. Assess implementation of the strategy by monitoring the implementation of the work plan: Track progress using clear indicators, review outcomes with stakeholders, and adjust the strategy as needed.
Note: Risk is assessed based on 4 score points, where 0= not applicable (black dot), 1= moderate (grey dot), 2= major (Pink dot) and 3= severe (red dot). The climate change drivers are adapted from the CLIMEFISH project2.
A significant impediment to implementing Aqua-Adapt, or any comparable adaptation methodology, is the necessity for a corresponding governance framework, which is the most challenging aspects for adopting and implementing it. Thus, successful implementation of adaption to climate change in aquaculture requires a well-prepared leading institution or team operating at the appropriate scale with nested decision-making; a coordination mechanism for engaging institutions, the private sector, civil society, and research bodies; supportive policies and norms to enable adaptation actions; and sufficient economic and human resources (7).
Overall, to effectively tackle climate change within the aquaculture industry, it is crucial to implement practical and immediate adaptation strategies that engage all relevant parties. This encompasses everyone from farmers and aquaculture communities to scientific and innovation bodies, as well as those in governance, including policymakers and implementers. Their combined efforts are vital for utilizing aquatic foods to both mitigate and adapt to climate change. This process involves endorsing technologies and practices that bolster resilience against climate impacts. While this endeavor is undoubtedly challenging, it is inevitable that we will find a solution for climate-change resilience!