Kürşat Kayhan
Production Manager
Ersoy Holding

To view the rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz solely as an energy crisis is to overlook the true storm approaching the global agri-food system. Every fluctuation in energy prices reaches our tables directly through the fertilizer and feed sectors. We must now re-evaluate the logistical disruptions and cost pressures at strategic chokepoints within the inseparable integrity of the agriculture-feed-fertilizer triad.

The Strait of Hormuz, the most discussed topic of recent times, is actually one of the most strategic chokepoints in global trade and plays a critical role, particularly in terms of energy and agricultural inputs. Approximately one-third of global oil trade and a significant portion of liquefied natural gas pass through this narrow waterway. However, another critical factor that is often overlooked is its impact on the fertilizer and feed sectors. Recent increases in geopolitical tensions and military conflicts have led to serious shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, creating a ripple effect across the global agriculture-food system.

From the perspective of the fertilizer sector, the Strait of Hormuz’s central role in the global supply chain is particularly notable. It is known that approximately 20% to 30% of global fertilizer trade passes through this strait. Additionally, it is reported that roughly 33% of the fertilizer traded globally is transported via this route. Consequently, any disruption in the strait directly leads to a supply shortage. Indeed, during the recent crisis, a decline of over 70% in tanker traffic and drops reaching up to 90% at certain times caused significant disruptions in the global fertilizer supply chain.

MARKET VOLATILITY AND THE RIPPLE EFFECT ON FEED

The most significant consequence of this supply shortage is rising prices. The fact that urea prices rose by over 50% in a short period at the beginning of 2026 is a clear indication of volatility in the fertilizer market. Since fertilizer production is heavily dependent on natural gas, increases in energy prices directly impact fertilizer costs. Disruptions in LNG trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz have driven up production costs, leading many countries to halt fertilizer plant operations. This situation not only reduces supply but also increases price pressure on a global scale. Let’s consider this: What if farmers stop producing? 

Not out of protest. Simply because production no longer yields a profit. What if it actually happens? Less wheat. Less corn. Less barley. Because as long as agriculture keeps functioning, we forget about it. Everyone realizes it the day it stops. The true value of agriculture is only discovered when it’s missing.

Since feed production relies heavily on agricultural products, cost increases in agricultural production are reflected in feed prices. A decrease in fertilizer use or rising costs reduces agricultural productivity and leads to declines, particularly in grain production. This situation restricts the supply of feed raw materials such as corn, barley, and soybeans, thereby driving up feed prices. Consequently, the fertilizer crisis’s impact on the feed sector is indirect but quite significant. Looking at examples, the current response by the Chinese government illustrates this very well.

The economy and political stability remain strong through agriculture…

Rising energy costs are another significant factor affecting the feed sector. The rise in oil and natural gas prices due to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is increasing the costs of fuel and electricity used in agricultural production. These increases are creating cost pressures in both crop production and livestock operations. Since the drying, processing, and transportation processes used in feed production are energy-intensive, rising energy prices are directly driving up feed prices.

LOGISTICAL DISRUPTIONS AND GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY

The logistics dimension is also crucial for understanding the crisis’s impacts. Security issues in the Strait of Hormuz have increased insurance costs in maritime transport and made the use of alternative routes necessary. This situation extends transit times and increases costs. The inability to secure timely supplies of fertilizer and feed raw materials can lead to significant production losses, particularly during planting seasons. Indeed, projections of a 33% contraction in the global fertilizer supply chain highlight the severity of this situation.

SYSTEMIC RISKS AND THE PATH TO SUSTAINABILITY

The crisis also poses significant risks to global food security. The tightening of fertilizer supplies and rising prices are reducing agricultural production, leading to higher food prices. This situation is triggering both feed and food inflation, particularly in developing countries. According to FAO assessments, the sharp decline in tanker traffic constitutes a “systemic shock” to the global food system. The rise in feed costs, in turn, is driving up prices of animal products, thereby further intensifying inflationary pressures.

As a result, the Strait of Hormuz crisis is deeply affecting not only energy markets but also the global agriculture and food system through the fertilizer and feed sectors. The shortage of fertilizer, price hikes, and logistical issues are reducing agricultural production, raising feed costs, and ultimately driving up food prices. This situation not only increases food security risks on a global scale but also brings sustainability debates in the agricultural sector back to the forefront.

In this context, strategic measures such as the development of alternative trade corridors, increasing local capacity in fertilizer production, and reducing energy dependence are of great importance. Otherwise, any crisis occurring in critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz will continue to create deep and long-lasting effects on the global food system through the feed and fertilizer sectors. We must move beyond the traditional perspective and recognize that the time has come to discuss a comprehensive feed-fertilizer-agriculture triad beyond mere short-term measures—hoping that this crisis may at least be seen as having a single beneficial aspect.