Rabobank’s new report projected that China's soybean imports will slow down and finally decline through 2030. The estimation is based on slower livestock production growth, continuous improvement in farming practices and adoption of a low-soymeal inclusion ratio in feed formulas in an attempt by the government to reduce soybean import to ensure food security.

China is the world's top soybean importer, undertaking over 60% of global trade, with soybean imports mainly driven by crushing for feed production. Therefore, future imports will primarily be influenced by the outlook for feed demand and the soymeal inclusion rate in feed rations, according to the report compiled by Rabobank.

Lief Chiang, senior analyst (grains and oilseeds) at Rabobank, said: “We expect that Chinese feed consumption will maintain low single-digit growth. However, the inclusion rate of soya meal in feed rations is projected to drop, as the Chinese government is launching a soya meal reduction campaign aimed at lowering the dependence on imported soya beans to ensure food security.”

The report indicated that the reduction of soymeal inclusion in feed will also create opportunities for start-ups to develop new technologies and novel ingredients. Chenjun Pan, senior analyst (animal protein) at Rabobank, added: "In a low-soya meal inclusion scenario, extra use of amino acids will be necessary to meet the nutritional needs of animals."

Chinese amino acid players will benefit, but rising domestic demand might compromise producers' ability to export and prompt foreign buyers to diversify their supply chains, Rabobank explained. Low-soymeal inclusion formulas will also bring opportunities to other feed ingredient manufacturers, according to the report, for example, enzyme application will rise along with rising use of alternative protein meals.